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Tropical TS Jerry

The 6Z EPS is still another run with a small minority of members in a Conus threatening position at the end. It still won’t completely back down:

6Z 144:
C8A4BC76-20E4-4EAB-A07D-26D37DD33405.png

0Z 150:
13AC958A-3DDC-4439-A336-893CDF6966CE.png
 
GaWx said:
The 6Z EPS is still another run with a small minority of members in a Conus threatening position at the end. It still won’t completely back down:

6Z 144:
View attachment 23749

0Z 150:
View attachment 23750
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I doubt we see Jerry ever make it to the CONUS but it's just enough to keep it interesting, one thing for sure it certainly seems to be pointing to the idea of collapsing stirring currents and slowing down drastically south of Bermuda

1568987525026.png
 
metwannabe said:
Jerry is darn near becoming a naked swirl, really struggling atm
Click to expand...

Great news for the shorter term at least, but for the longer term what might that portend? How does current and progged future steering look at a lower mean level to reflect a weaker system compared to a stronger system? I want to make sure this doesn’t imply a quicker or more westward motion.

Edit: Anyone have links to steering level that @pcbjr posts? I can’t find them at wiki.
 
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I got it from someone:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

These things are never constant. Around where he is now, there don’t seem to be large differences. However, further west near the Bahamas it is more westerly toward FL due to surface high pressure to the north that is progged to persist for a few days/not weaken too quickly. I’m just being cautious as I’ve been going and still am going 90% chance of recurve E of CONUS.
 
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Though hard to believe, the 12Z GFs has a very interesting solution with Jerry looping almost all of the way back to where he is now after 288 hours!
 
GaWx said:
Though hard to believe, the 12Z GFs has a very interesting solution with Jerry looping almost all of the way back to where he is now after 288 hours!
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I saw that, looks like it gets sheared apart @144 and some of the energy is left behind to loop back but in a very weakened state...
 
12Z GEFS at hour 120 has more laggards that stay well to the SW (E of Bahamas) vs prior runs. It might be a good idea to make sure this isn't a trend.
 
I was looking on AmericanWX and was seeing a lot about the euro and it needs to be watched for further development of the ridge and slower trough because it came in much further south v previous run but still finds a way to escape
 
Fwiw since it is not a quality ensemble, the 12Z Crazy Uncle ensemble has 3 of 21 members looping west/lagging behind just NE of the Bahamas at hour 96. The prior run had nothing like that.
 
12Z EPS once again says hold your jets because the CONUS is still not yet 100% safe. More later from someone.
 
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