When looking at the 11AM-5 PM movement, he moved a pretty decent amount to the right of the NHC track, 0.2 W for every 0.1N instead of the projected 0.3W for every 0.1N.
The 11 AM NHC track had him at 17.5N, 56.5W as of 8 PM. But at 5 PM, he was already up to 17.5 N while still only at 55.8 W. So, at 5 PM, he was a whopping 0.7 east of where he was projected to be by the 11 AM advisory when reaching 17.5 N. This has to be good news for those wanting a safe recurve from the CONUS. I'm surprised nobody else mentioned this. My feeling of a 90% chance of no CONUS hit may be raised soon to the 95% area if this right of NHC track continues much longer. The only thing going against a safe recurve are the 6 of 51 (12%) 12Z Euro ens showing a CONUS hit, which is similar to the two prior runs. So that small minority is persisting for the time being. Regardless, they're highly likely to be very wrong just like those Euro ens members looping Humberto back to the US after earlier moving off the SE US coast a few hundred miles. And keep in mind there were THREE Euro ens runs with as much as 25-30% turning Humberto around and hitting the US. In this case, it is only 12%. I currently feel they're wait out to lunch.
Hot off the press: the Happy Hour ICON is well NE of the 12Z run suggesting the 12Z was a fluke run.
Edit: Happy Hour GFS is a little to the right of the 12Z. The fat lady wants to sing and I don't blame her because I'm seeing no trends in the hit CONUS direction, but it is still a bit too early for that imo.
