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Tropical TS Fred

GaWx

GaWx

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Invest 94L has just been designated. It is east of the Windward Islands near 54W.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east
of the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions are expected
to be favorable to support some gradual development, and this
system could become a tropical depression while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the
middle of this week. Interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds to portions of that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.




0Z UKMET does develop this into a TD in the NE Caribbean Tuesday and takes it to just SE of S FL at 144 hours moving WNW (end of run) but it never gets stronger than TD. The UKMET fwiw can be conservatively weak. So, we’ll see. The Euro, GFS, and CMC are pretty similar and also suggest it will move toward S FL. This is just guidance.


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 17.3N 63.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2021 60 17.3N 63.3W 1013 28
0000UTC 11.08.2021 72 18.7N 66.3W 1012 27
1200UTC 11.08.2021 84 19.6N 69.0W 1011 28
0000UTC 12.08.2021 96 20.7N 71.5W 1011 29
1200UTC 12.08.2021 108 21.7N 74.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 13.08.2021 120 22.4N 76.2W 1012 25
1200UTC 13.08.2021 132 23.2N 78.0W 1013 22
0000UTC 14.08.2021 144 23.9N 80.0W 1013 26
———————————————

Regardless of development, progged steering suggests this may very well cause an increase in rainfall over parts of FL/SE US by early next week.
 
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Getting interesting

A low pressure system located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday, and then move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around
the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could
be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains
and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Levi Cowan has great video on this system. The biggest threat I see from this one is it getting the grounds wet,wetter. Setting table unfavorably for what may or may not come latter this month. The wave behind this one is decoupled mess, not much of a shot. Levi is a great follow for tropics this time of year. You wx junkies should check him out. He puts vids on twitter when theres something to discuss.
 
NCSNOW said:
Levi Cowan has great video on this system. The biggest threat I see from this one is it getting the grounds wet,wetter. Setting table unfavorably for what may or may not come latter this month. The wave behind this one is decoupled mess, not much of a shot. Levi is a great follow for tropics this time of year. You wx junkies should check him out. He puts vids on twitter when theres something to discuss.
Click to expand...
He did mention this first wave will need to be watched as it approaches closer to home
 
GFS tries to get a weak system going just before it crossed PR and then right over Hispaniola, then energy tries to reemerge eastern GOM and have this into Panhandle of FL. Bare minimum eventually a SE soaker

1628527881418.png
 
Depending on where this goes, the @pcbjr abode of Hogtown will have a decent shot at the 2nd heaviest JJA rainfall on record back to 1890. I can assure you he doesn't want any part of that.
 
Chazwin said:
I don’t know that it develops into anything real strong before crossing Hispaniola, after that if it stays just north of Cuba through the Florida straights it might have a shot to strengthen quickly
Click to expand...
Weaker less organized systems tend to survive the shredder better
 
Models look to be starting to ring the early warning signs on a post Cuba ramp up in intensification maybe before a southern tip of Florida hit .. cat 1 potential there .. then post Florida if it can make it into eastern gulf I can see a ramp up to a tougher tier Hurricane with those warm waters… definitely have to keep our eyes peeled on this
 
From FFC, KATL

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Fairly routine summertime forecast through the upcoming weekend as
Georgia remains under weak, relatively featureless upper-level flow
pattern. Western Atlantic surface ridge retreats offshore with weak
surface trough settling into the region. Result is scattered to
widespread, diurnally oriented, convection and near normal
temperatures. Potential big changes for early next week as medium-
range models coming into better agreement, and better run-to-run
consistency, with a potential tropical system. Model consensus
narrowing in on a tropical low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico/west
coast of Florida area by early Monday, however there continues to be
noticeable differences in the strength/timing of the system. Still a
long ways off in the forecast, but we will need to watch upcoming
trends for potential impacts across central and north Georgia.

1628598205658.png
 
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Looking pretty good this morning on the early visible images. Still have some spread in where it could go from up the FL east coast to the central gulf. How strong the trough moving through the NE is this weekend and how much it pushes back against the bermuda ridge along with land interactions in the islands will be big players. Good luck with intensity this far out
 
Recon is in there now. Looks like they closed off a center near 16.3n&63.4w. Between that and the satellite presentation, I'd be surprised if it's not upgraded to at least a TD.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Recon is in there now. Looks like they closed off a center near 16.3n&63.4w. Between that and the satellite presentation, I'd be surprised if it's not upgraded to at least a TD.
Click to expand...
With the winds they have found if they can close off the LLC I think it goes straight to TS
 
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