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Tropical TS Fred

Wow those are bigger I guess due to uncertainty or expecting multiple tornado touch downs. The experimental odds were a much smaller area for the recent New Jersey and Illinois tornadoes down to the exact county!
 
Fred has been tracking well west of what the UKMET showed on runs the last few days. They had him go NNE from the far SW corner of GA to east of ATL. Not a good performance at all on the track to this point.
I think that’s why we are seeing favorable upslope and longer period of Atlantic moisture coming ashore. Perfect track for a mess.
 
Fred has been tracking well west of what the UKMET showed on runs the last few days. They had him go NNE from the far SW corner of GA to east of ATL. Not a good performance at all on the track to this point.

This was the 12km 12z model run from Sunday, looks about right.

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