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Tropical Hurricane Ernesto

0Z Euro: weak at PR but much stronger with cat 2 H with center just E of Bermuda followed by a miss of Canada
 
085952_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png



108/11 5:00 PM13.6N48.0W30MPH1010mbWnw at 21 MPHPtnlFive08/11 4:57 PMHagen/cangialosi
1A08/11 8:00 PM13.9N49.1W30MPH1009mbWnw at 23 MPHPtnlFive08/11 7:45 PMPasch
208/11 11:00 PM14.1N50.1W30MPH1009mbWnw at 23 MPHPtnlFive08/11 10:45 PMPasch
2A08/12 2:00 AM14.3N51.4W30MPH1009mbWnw at 23 MPHPtnlFive08/12 1:36 AMBeven
308/12 5:00 AM14.4N52.5W30MPH1009mbW at 25 MPHPtnlFive08/12 4:54 AMBeven
 
5 am NHC.....Interpretation: they don't have confidence in the track yet.


"While the model
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there
is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will
eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track
with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast."
 
108/11 5:00 PM13.6N48.0W30MPH1010mbWnw at 21 MPHPtnlFive08/11 4:57 PMHagen/cangialosi
1A08/11 8:00 PM13.9N49.1W30MPH1009mbWnw at 23 MPHPtnlFive08/11 7:45 PMPasch
208/11 11:00 PM14.1N50.1W30MPH1009mbWnw at 23 MPHPtnlFive08/11 10:45 PMPasch
2A08/12 2:00 AM14.3N51.4W30MPH1009mbWnw at 23 MPHPtnlFive08/12 1:36 AMBeven
308/12 5:00 AM14.4N52.5W30MPH1009mbW at 25 MPHPtnlFive08/12 4:54 AMBeven
3A08/12 8:00 AM14.6N54.3W30MPH1009mbW at 26 MPHPtnlFive08/12 8:00 AMReinhart
 
122330 1558N 05458W 9781 00320 0138 +250 +244 089028 029 040 001 00
7:23 CDT
40 kts=46 mph Peak 10-second average surface wind speed
 
Belle Lechat said:
​
108/11 5:00 PM13.6N48.0W30MPH1010mbWnw at 21 MPHPtnlFive08/11 4:57 PMHagen/cangialosi
1A08/11 8:00 PM13.9N49.1W30MPH1009mbWnw at 23 MPHPtnlFive08/11 7:45 PMPasch
208/11 11:00 PM14.1N50.1W30MPH1009mbWnw at 23 MPHPtnlFive08/11 10:45 PMPasch
2A08/12 2:00 AM14.3N51.4W30MPH1009mbWnw at 23 MPHPtnlFive08/12 1:36 AMBeven
308/12 5:00 AM14.4N52.5W30MPH1009mbW at 25 MPHPtnlFive08/12 4:54 AMBeven
3A08/12 8:00 AM14.6N54.3W30MPH1009mbW at 26 MPHPtnlFive08/12 8:00 AMReinhart
Click to expand...
Thanks for doing this - I like the summary table!
 
GaWx said:
0Z UKMET: similar to 12Z run

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.7N 71.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2024 84 22.7N 71.1W 1006 43
0000UTC 16.08.2024 96 24.1N 71.2W 1004 47
1200UTC 16.08.2024 108 26.1N 70.1W 1000 48
0000UTC 17.08.2024 120 27.7N 69.8W 998 43
1200UTC 17.08.2024 132 28.8N 69.9W 997 50
0000UTC 18.08.2024 144 30.2N 70.1W 995 52
1200UTC 18.08.2024 156 32.8N 69.3W 993 50
0000UTC 19.08.2024 168 36.4N 68.2W 982 63
Click to expand...
Highlighting this line
1200UTC 15.08.2024 84 22.7N 71.1W 1006 43

43 kts=49.48 mph

Let's see how long it really takes to go up 3 knots.
 
Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later
today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward
Islands.
 
Shaggy said:
Still hauling butt and still no clear area of circulation for the models to latch onto
Click to expand...
If I am correct, I think I can see it in the large map in #27. It looks like the center lower down lags the center above.
 
I have a feeling a weaker storm and running into land/islands will result in a further west track that could hammer New England or Canada
 
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