Henry2326
Member
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Tropical TS Earl
- Thread starter Brent
- Start date
severestorm
Member
18z runs should clear alot of things up then
Henry2326
Member
Brent
Member
Special TWO
Updated: Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the circulation associated with an area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands has become better defined today, and the plane reported that
surface pressures have fallen a bit. If the showers and
thunderstorms associated with the low persist through the evening,
the system could become a tropical depression as early as tonight.
The disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward,
toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains may occur over
portions of the Leeward Islands during the next couple of days, and
interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Updated: Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the circulation associated with an area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands has become better defined today, and the plane reported that
surface pressures have fallen a bit. If the showers and
thunderstorms associated with the low persist through the evening,
the system could become a tropical depression as early as tonight.
The disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward,
toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains may occur over
portions of the Leeward Islands during the next couple of days, and
interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
severestorm
Member
out to sea on the 18z run
Henry2326
Member
But it's shifting toward more of a Euro look. Although a weaker system than past runs, it's picking it up a full 2 days sooner then the Euro. I think still much to worked out as a center gets identified in the next 2 days.
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
NHC has bumped it to 80% in 48 hours.
Brent
Member
Earl likely coming at 11
Brent
Member
Going nowhere fast but yeah most of the models are out to sea
Little bit of spread in eps but yeah most likely ots
Henry2326
Member
All show hitting a wall and turning.
Llc is racing out ahead of convection. Assume it'll die out and we will do the whole reforming LLC deal if not that due west relatively fast motion is interesting
Taylor C
Member
The center is passing quite a bit further south and west of 60W/20N than what model data suggested it would be at this time several days ago.
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Lol one eps member has 973 over Wake county giddy up
You can see the real divergence in solutions around 96 hours a stronger system by that point is likely to get drawn N to NE while a weak system would continue the general west motion or stall. Based on the way its organizing this evening you'd have to leave toward the right biased forecasts unless the wheels fall off
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Taylor C
Member
Earl is getting its act together fast. Closer to being a hurricane and forecast to become a major as it pulls north and east. Looks like Bermuda is going to get spared the worst at this time, but if that turn is slower watch out.
Shaggy
Member
Interesting that a few gefs ensembles that lag earl behind the others later turn him west. Guess that's the last thing to watch in real time as he pulls out to the NE