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Tropical TS Earl

Yeah I feel this is the one. Both the Euro and the GFS are showing something and when the Euro is onboard, I think this maybe a legit threat
 
Snowfan said:
Yeah I feel this is the one. Both the Euro and the GFS are showing something and when the Euro is onboard, I think this maybe a legit threat
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Yeah there is way more model support than we've seen all season. It's not just one model or one run. If this busts yeah you might as well give up on the season ever starting lol

Now of course the potential US threat is at day 10 so I'm definitely not convinced there(although it's very realistic I think).. But we gotta start somewhere
 
Will encounter dry air for the next several days, which is the worst case scenario if you wanted it to gain latitude. The GFS and Canadian have a capture by the trough turning it away from CONUS. Euro has it nudging under the trough and potentially stalling or moving slowly west under a ridge off the coast of FL. Would be a similar situation to Hurricane Hervey with the slow approach and rapid intensification with minimal shear. A bunch of scenarios on the board.

ec-fast_z500_mslp_atl_11.png



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jrips27 said:
Long way to go with this one. Way too early to rule out impacts to the USA
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95% recurve harmlessly out to sea, as we get later into the season! Troughs get deeper, and it gets harder for them to get to the east coast. Only hope for Shetley is a gulf system that moves up through the FL panhandle
 
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