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Tropical TS Earl

Henry2326

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Long time ago I would have said impossible. I'm smarter now. Wasn't paying too much attention to the big boy in south TX until I ran this....looks like a cat 3-4 into Brownsville.
 

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jrips27

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Not that this means actually means anything but the 0z GFS at 144 hours is running about 20mb deeper than the 18z
 

Shaggy

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06z still OTS but then0z ensembles still had some members bend back to the coast. The wave has a long elongated circ so not sure exactly where a center will consolidate.
 

Taylor C

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The EURO, CMC, GFS, and NAVGEM show a big intensity improvement Thursday night into Friday as the system approaches 60W/20N. All, but the NAVGEM pass the center of circulation north of 20N before 60W.
 

Henry2326

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12z Icon not showing any turn yet. If that pressure verifies I hope it turns soon.
 

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SD

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The icon would turn ots albeit probably slower than the 0z euro and less of a dramatic right hook than the gfs
 

SD

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As long as we continue to see this look with attempted -nao, trough near Hudson Bay and the lakes moving east into the SE Canada area and rockies ridge pump the only way for it to get way west is to be faster than modeled or to not fully get pulled away in the trough then hook back west as the rockies ridge moves east across the conus. Looking at the 12z gfs the more impactful thing on our weather from this system might be the ability for 91L to accelerate the jet across the nortg atlantic undercut the ridge to its east and start the a stronger more west based -nao development gfs_z500a_nhem_20 (1).png
 
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Tarheel1

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It's interesting how we get a -nao attempt right as a storm is approaching to the coast likely to turn it OTS
It’ll be back for D, J, F, no worries! Winter patterns show their hand in Aug and Sep!
12z is out to sea!
 

Arcc

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Euro says stick a fork in this one besides a mostly weak storm with no chance at getting close to landfall with that look at 500mb.
 

Henry2326

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Euro says stick a fork in this one besides a mostly weak storm with no chance at getting close to landfall with that look at 500mb.
Ha--wish I had a dollar for every time Euro said stick a fork in it....lol
 
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NCSNOW

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20222421030_GOES16-ABI-taw-13-1800x1080.jpg


Elongated still. The quiet, below Normal theme continues. The peak is 16 days away , then the bell curve heads down hill.
 
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