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Tropical TS Earl

The EURO, CMC, GFS, and NAVGEM show a big intensity improvement Thursday night into Friday as the system approaches 60W/20N. All, but the NAVGEM pass the center of circulation north of 20N before 60W.
 
12z Icon not showing any turn yet. If that pressure verifies I hope it turns soon.
 

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The icon would turn ots albeit probably slower than the 0z euro and less of a dramatic right hook than the gfs
 
As long as we continue to see this look with attempted -nao, trough near Hudson Bay and the lakes moving east into the SE Canada area and rockies ridge pump the only way for it to get way west is to be faster than modeled or to not fully get pulled away in the trough then hook back west as the rockies ridge moves east across the conus. Looking at the 12z gfs the more impactful thing on our weather from this system might be the ability for 91L to accelerate the jet across the nortg atlantic undercut the ridge to its east and start the a stronger more west based -nao developmentgfs_z500a_nhem_20 (1).png
 
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SD said:
It's interesting how we get a -nao attempt right as a storm is approaching to the coast likely to turn it OTS
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It’ll be back for D, J, F, no worries! Winter patterns show their hand in Aug and Sep!
12z is out to sea!
 
Euro says stick a fork in this one besides a mostly weak storm with no chance at getting close to landfall with that look at 500mb.
 
Arcc said:
Euro says stick a fork in this one besides a mostly weak storm with no chance at getting close to landfall with that look at 500mb.
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Ha--wish I had a dollar for every time Euro said stick a fork in it....lol
 
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20222421030_GOES16-ABI-taw-13-1800x1080.jpg


Elongated still. The quiet, below Normal theme continues. The peak is 16 days away , then the bell curve heads down hill.
 
Just when you think it's a done deal, a model separates from the pack and proposes something different.

12z CMC
 

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seems a smaller circulation between 17-18N and 53-54 west is fading and we are seeing a much larger far more broad circulation maintaining to the SW.
 
Probably a miss but umm this thing ain't over just yet. Definitely need to keep an eye on it next few days

ec-fast_z500aNorm_eus_11.png
 
metwannabe said:
Probably a miss but umm this thing ain't over just yet. Definitely need to keep an eye on it next few days

ec-fast_z500aNorm_eus_11.png
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Huge difference between the Euro CMC and the GFS. Based on how wrong the GFS was about the GOM monster then maybe this might be more accurate. At least its something to watch.
 
metwannabe said:
Probably a miss but umm this thing ain't over just yet. Definitely need to keep an eye on it next few days

ec-fast_z500aNorm_eus_11.png
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What is it about virtually every model at the end of it's range that likes to have hurricanes threatening the east coast?
 
Shaggy said:
seems a smaller circulation between 17-18N and 53-54 west is fading and we are seeing a much larger far more broad circulation maintaining to the SW.
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well that northern circulation has fired up new storms so that may become the more dominate feature so who knows!
 
Euro never really develops it now but gets very weak system just off coast before getting absorbed or kicked out by the incoming trough

Either way looks like all models keep whatever there is ots
 
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