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Tropical Tropical Storm Marco

ForsythSnow

ForsythSnow

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This is the wave in front behind Josephine

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to increase in
association with a fast-moving tropical wave located about 500 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is expected to move
westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast
forward speed is likely to limit significant development while the
system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on
Monday, and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
After that time, however, the system is expected to move more slowly
westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where
upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of
a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_22.png
Gulf bound
 
Code Red Marco?

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce
an area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds. This wave
is moving quickly westward at about 20 mph and significant
development is unlikely while it moves across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. After that time,
however, the wave is forecast to slow down, and a tropical
depression will likely form late this week or this weekend when it
reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
12Z Icon continues the trend of a stronger 97L/weaker 98L through hour 120.
 
this one may be the sleeper

it'd be wild if this got named first :p


Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in
association with a tropical wave currently located over the central
Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over next day or so while it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph
across the central Caribbean Sea. After that time, the wave is
forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week when the system
reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
Brent said:
this one may be the sleeper

it'd be wild if this got named first :p


Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in
association with a tropical wave currently located over the central
Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over next day or so while it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph
across the central Caribbean Sea. After that time, the wave is
forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week when the system
reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Click to expand...
Interesting that you say it might be the sleeper.....look what GFS-Para did with it.

ScreenshotCapture_2020_08_19_19_31_41_355.jpg
 
This one going up too with no globals support

A tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over the
central Caribbean Sea. This system is gradually becoming better
organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
This low pressure area is moving westward, and interests in Honduras
and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and
southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
Looks like around Galveston it's weak but hey it's better than 13 which is just some showersprateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus (1).png
 
I have to wonder if a strengthening 97L could end up inhibiting TD 13. Any opinions?
 
This one looks stronger than I expected, would be something if recon named it first and it missed land and went into the gulf as a major and caused the other storm to sling shot up the east coast instead and weaker. Not shown on models, but it is 2020.
 
Does look good, arguably better than 13 (has for a little while), but it seems less "spinny".

Likely shouldn't be sleeping on this though, because what this storm does is going to play at least somewhat of a role with 13 as well. (and 14 itself could become the bigger issue)
 
GaWx said:
The NHC tracks actually have 13 as a TS and 14 as a H both in the Gulf as of 8AM Tuesday. Count me as highly skeptical this will happen.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I don't think I can even recall two storms in the GOM at the same time ... though I am getting older!! I suppose that it is possible as the tracks are different and the water is warm. One major factor of this happening though is the fact it is 2020!!
 
Once again the Euro is developing this and not 13

Actually in the frame before this it's 987 mb on low res which is way stronger than prior runs

ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_6 (2).png
 
Brent said:
Once again the Euro is developing this and not 13

Actually in the frame before this it's 987 mb on low res which is way stronger than prior runs

View attachment 46812
Click to expand...
I’m curious have we had two storms in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time before? Since it is such a rare occurrence maybe the models just don’t know how to handle both features at the same time in the same gulf?.
 
Matthew70 said:
I’m curious have we had two storms in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time before? Since it is such a rare occurrence maybe the models just don’t know how to handle both features at the same time in the same gulf?.
Click to expand...

its been posted in the season thread but no not really in the modern era

would be very unprecedented since satellites if it does verify and yeah it definitely makes you wonder the models were already struggling as it was
 
822
URNT15 KNHC 202021
AF305 0114A CYCLONE HDOB 35 20200820
201200 1415N 07956W 9254 00770 0121 +174 +149 136021 024 037 020 03
201230 1415N 07958W 9250 00774 0121 +170 +145 137028 029 044 031 00
201300 1415N 07959W 9255 00768 0120 +171 +141 139027 030 042 029 03
201330 1414N 08001W 9242 00781 0117 +181 +138 133023 029 035 011 00
201400 1414N 08003W 9248 00776 0116 +184 +137 136013 020 029 008 00
201430 1414N 08004W 9251 00774 0117 +181 +138 135009 012 037 047 00
201500 1413N 08006W 9268 00761 0119 +176 +141 306003 012 043 070 03
201530 1413N 08007W 9233 00798 0116 +199 +143 183008 010 033 026 00
201600 1413N 08009W 9260 00767 0117 +187 +145 167010 014 041 035 03
201630 1412N 08010W 9242 00784 0115 +192 +146 193010 012 041 037 00
201700 1412N 08012W 9253 00774 0109 +214 +145 177015 015 028 010 00
201730 1412N 08013W 9246 00780 0109 +217 +145 170017 017 025 004 00
201800 1411N 08015W 9248 00779 0113 +203 +146 170016 018 027 006 00
201830 1411N 08017W 9250 00776 0113 +203 +147 173016 018 026 008 00
201900 1411N 08018W 9250 00775 0111 +208 +149 177015 016 026 004 00
201930 1410N 08020W 9244 00784 0112 +202 +150 167015 017 025 004 00
202000 1410N 08021W 9250 00776 0112 +203 +151 157018 018 028 006 00
202030 1409N 08023W 9246 00779 0109 +208 +152 162019 020 030 005 00
202100 1409N 08024W 9249 00774 0105 +216 +152 174015 018 025 009 00
202130 1409N 08026W 9248 00775 0102 +224 +153 190010 013 025 000 03
$$
;
44 kt SFMR
 
Snowfan said:
822
URNT15 KNHC 202021
AF305 0114A CYCLONE HDOB 35 20200820
201200 1415N 07956W 9254 00770 0121 +174 +149 136021 024 037 020 03
201230 1415N 07958W 9250 00774 0121 +170 +145 137028 029 044 031 00
201300 1415N 07959W 9255 00768 0120 +171 +141 139027 030 042 029 03
201330 1414N 08001W 9242 00781 0117 +181 +138 133023 029 035 011 00
201400 1414N 08003W 9248 00776 0116 +184 +137 136013 020 029 008 00
201430 1414N 08004W 9251 00774 0117 +181 +138 135009 012 037 047 00
201500 1413N 08006W 9268 00761 0119 +176 +141 306003 012 043 070 03
201530 1413N 08007W 9233 00798 0116 +199 +143 183008 010 033 026 00
201600 1413N 08009W 9260 00767 0117 +187 +145 167010 014 041 035 03
201630 1412N 08010W 9242 00784 0115 +192 +146 193010 012 041 037 00
201700 1412N 08012W 9253 00774 0109 +214 +145 177015 015 028 010 00
201730 1412N 08013W 9246 00780 0109 +217 +145 170017 017 025 004 00
201800 1411N 08015W 9248 00779 0113 +203 +146 170016 018 027 006 00
201830 1411N 08017W 9250 00776 0113 +203 +147 173016 018 026 008 00
201900 1411N 08018W 9250 00775 0111 +208 +149 177015 016 026 004 00
201930 1410N 08020W 9244 00784 0112 +202 +150 167015 017 025 004 00
202000 1410N 08021W 9250 00776 0112 +203 +151 157018 018 028 006 00
202030 1409N 08023W 9246 00779 0109 +208 +152 162019 020 030 005 00
202100 1409N 08024W 9249 00774 0105 +216 +152 174015 018 025 009 00
202130 1409N 08026W 9248 00775 0102 +224 +153 190010 013 025 000 03
$$
;
44 kt SFMR
Click to expand...
Real question is do they take the decent area of 35 to 40 kt winds and upgrade at 5 or do they wait for more readings? To be fair this was in a rain band as you can see rain saturation.
 
Also something that will be interesting is once both storms are inland. Will a front sweep them together or merge them or will the jog along slowly close to one another? Reason I find it interesting is the amount of rains these 2 storms could produce. Imagine one tracking thru MS and one thru GA. Would there closeness create more lift from interaction?
 
Think this might be Laura lol

..DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 82.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Punta Herrero northward to Cancun, Mexico.

Also forecast to be a hurricane for Texas Louisiana now

025457_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Brent said:
Think this might be Laura lol

..DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 82.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Punta Herrero northward to Cancun, Mexico.

Also forecast to be a hurricane for Texas Louisiana now

View attachment 46842
Click to expand...
Lol the second depression taking the name before the one that formed. Talk about weird chances.
 
Strongest HWRF yet major before the Yucatan and a legit hurricane into Louisiana as well now what's interesting is when its near the LA coast 13 is tearing through the Keys as a major on the same model modernweenie this is much faster and further east than other models as wellhwrf_satIR_14L_8.png
hwrf_satIR_14L_15.png
 
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