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Tropical Tropical Storm Marco

NWTENN said:
What are the limiting factors in Marco becoming a major? Climatology and water temps are on his side. Is he going to run out of time? Dry air? Shear? Something else?
Click to expand...

Shear

But the models have been terrible on intensity...
 
NWTENN said:
What are the limiting factors in Marco becoming a major? Climatology and water temps are on his side. Is he going to run out of time? Dry air? Shear? Something else?
Click to expand...
I made a graphic that illustrates what should happen to the storms. It is worth mentioning that since Marco is a bit stronger than anticipated, it could fight off that shear a little more, but the change in impacts will be trivial.Graohuc.PNG
 
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_9.png
CMC much further east
 
I think this HWRF run will be interesting. Last run had the pressure at 1009mb but starts now at 994mb wondering how it will track.
 
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

...BIG CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST FOR MARCO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Sabine Pass eastward to
the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Intracoastal City Louisiana
eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border eastward to the Alabama/Florida border.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the northeastern Yucatan coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
Click to expand...
Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches has been issued for the Gulf Coast.
 
Based on the current cone of uncertainty, I might get rain from Marco!
 
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