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Tropical Tropical Storm Cristobal
- Thread starter Brent
- Start date
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Seems to be trending weaker with each run. I'd give it about 50/50 chance if it escapes the coastline of Mexico.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,660
- Reaction score
- 10,817
Actually 18z gfs is a bit stronger
Here’s the 00z spaghetti models
BufordWX
Member
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory 6:
...CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT INCHES TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...
LOCATION: 19.1°N 92.3°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: S at 1 mph
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 mb (-1)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 mph (+5)
NHC Track/Intensity Forecast:
12H: 60 MPH
24H: 40 MPH (Inland)
36H: 35 MPH (Inland)
48H: 35 MPH (Inland)
60H: 40 MPH (Over Water)
72H: 45 MPH (Over Water)
96H: 60 MPH (Over Water)
120H: 65 MPH (Over Water)
...CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT INCHES TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...
LOCATION: 19.1°N 92.3°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: S at 1 mph
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 mb (-1)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 mph (+5)
NHC Track/Intensity Forecast:
12H: 60 MPH
24H: 40 MPH (Inland)
36H: 35 MPH (Inland)
48H: 35 MPH (Inland)
60H: 40 MPH (Over Water)
72H: 45 MPH (Over Water)
96H: 60 MPH (Over Water)
120H: 65 MPH (Over Water)
BufordWX
Member
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory 6A:
...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT CREEPS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...
LOCATION: 19.0°N 92.1°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: SE at 2 mph
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 mb (-2)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 mph (+10)
...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT CREEPS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...
LOCATION: 19.0°N 92.1°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: SE at 2 mph
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 mb (-2)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 mph (+10)
Katrina redux
My point forecast from NWS now showing Sunday night forecast of wind gusts up to 65 mph. Of course, it's still far our, so things can still change (and will), but it makes this all a little more real to me.
Buried in Mex for 2 days. Probably gets pulled out and is lopsided on the east side
snowlover91
Member
Dawgdaze22
Member
Does anyone have any guesses on how this May impact the southeast?
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NoSnowATL
Member
Not much here in Georgia, some rain chances but nothing note worthy.
Dawgdaze22
Member
Figures. Lol growing up in central Florida is miss the tropical weather
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NoSnowATL
Member
I think we in will have plenty more chances this year. All I hope is that it’s quiet while I’m down there in July. ?
Dawgdaze22
Member
I think we in will have plenty more chances this year. All I hope is that it’s quiet while I’m down there in July.
Yep I’ll be there for the 4th and I’m very hopeful it’s quiet
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NoSnowATL
Member
I’ll be in PCB a week later. Can’t wait!
Could be a wet and windy late weekend for me down in south Louisiana. I know most on here are from the GA, AL, FL, and Carolina Southeast on this board, but for all here who will in some way be impacted as well, stay safe.
Flood Watch...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
957 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020
...Flood Watch is now in effect today through Tuesday morning...
.Tropical moisture streaming over the central Gulf Coast region
partly from the circulation of Tropical Storm Cristobal will be
capable of producing copious rainfall each day through the weekend
into early next week. General and widespread flooding will become
increasingly likely as this wet pattern persists.
LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ077-080>082-041445-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FA.A.0001.200603T1500Z-200609T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
St. Tammany-Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-
Livingston-Assumption-St. James-St. John The Baptist-
Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-Orleans-
Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Upper Terrebonne-
Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Pearl River-Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of New Roads, Lettsworth, Livonia, Spillman,
St. Francisville, Wakefield, Jackson, Clinton, Felps, Darlington,
Easleyville, Greensburg, Montpelier, Bogalusa, Enon, Franklinton,
Slidell, Mandeville, Covington, Lacombe, Bayou Sorrel,
Plaquemine, White Castle, Port Allen, Addis, Brusly, Baton Rouge,
Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Prairieville, Denham Springs, Watson,
Walker, Pierre Part, Labadieville, Paincourtville, Convent,
Lutcher, Gramercy, Laplace, Reserve, Thibodaux, Raceland, Larose,
Destrehan, Norco, Metairie, Kenner, East New Orleans,
New Orleans, Belle Chasse, Chalmette, Violet, Houma, Bayou Cane,
Chauvin, Cocodrie, Dulac, Montegut, Galliano, Cut Off,
Golden Meadow, Leeville, Buras, Pointe A La Hache, Port Sulphur,
Boothville, Venice, Empire, Myrtle Grove, Yscloskey, Amite,
Kentwood, Roseland, Wilmer, Hammond, Robert, Ponchatoula,
Crossroads, McNeil, Poplarville, Picayune, Bay St. Louis,
Waveland, Diamondhead, Gulfport, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs,
Moss Point, Gautier, and St. Martin
957 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a
* Flood Watch FOR portions of southeast Louisiana and
Mississippi, including the following areas, in southeast
Louisiana, Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East
Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Lower Jefferson, Lower
Lafourche, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard, Lower
Terrebonne, Northern Tangipahoa, Orleans, Pointe Coupee,
Southern Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. Helena, St. James, St.
John The Baptist, St. Tammany, Upper Jefferson, Upper
Lafourche, Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard, Upper
Terrebonne, Washington, West Baton Rouge, and West Feliciana.
In Mississippi, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, and Pearl River.
* through Tuesday morning
* Widespread rainfall will become heavy at times, especially along
the daily lake and gulf breezes. Rainfall rates at times will
range 2 to 4 inches per hour. Rainfall accumulations over the
seven day period could easily exceed ten inches within the watch
area.
* Impacts include standing water in streets to the point of
impassible roadways and rapid rises on area creeks and streams.
Drainage systems may approach capacity at times during periods
of heaviest rainfall.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
957 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020
...Flood Watch is now in effect today through Tuesday morning...
.Tropical moisture streaming over the central Gulf Coast region
partly from the circulation of Tropical Storm Cristobal will be
capable of producing copious rainfall each day through the weekend
into early next week. General and widespread flooding will become
increasingly likely as this wet pattern persists.
LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ077-080>082-041445-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FA.A.0001.200603T1500Z-200609T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
St. Tammany-Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-
Livingston-Assumption-St. James-St. John The Baptist-
Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-Orleans-
Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Upper Terrebonne-
Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Pearl River-Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of New Roads, Lettsworth, Livonia, Spillman,
St. Francisville, Wakefield, Jackson, Clinton, Felps, Darlington,
Easleyville, Greensburg, Montpelier, Bogalusa, Enon, Franklinton,
Slidell, Mandeville, Covington, Lacombe, Bayou Sorrel,
Plaquemine, White Castle, Port Allen, Addis, Brusly, Baton Rouge,
Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Prairieville, Denham Springs, Watson,
Walker, Pierre Part, Labadieville, Paincourtville, Convent,
Lutcher, Gramercy, Laplace, Reserve, Thibodaux, Raceland, Larose,
Destrehan, Norco, Metairie, Kenner, East New Orleans,
New Orleans, Belle Chasse, Chalmette, Violet, Houma, Bayou Cane,
Chauvin, Cocodrie, Dulac, Montegut, Galliano, Cut Off,
Golden Meadow, Leeville, Buras, Pointe A La Hache, Port Sulphur,
Boothville, Venice, Empire, Myrtle Grove, Yscloskey, Amite,
Kentwood, Roseland, Wilmer, Hammond, Robert, Ponchatoula,
Crossroads, McNeil, Poplarville, Picayune, Bay St. Louis,
Waveland, Diamondhead, Gulfport, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs,
Moss Point, Gautier, and St. Martin
957 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a
* Flood Watch FOR portions of southeast Louisiana and
Mississippi, including the following areas, in southeast
Louisiana, Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East
Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Lower Jefferson, Lower
Lafourche, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard, Lower
Terrebonne, Northern Tangipahoa, Orleans, Pointe Coupee,
Southern Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. Helena, St. James, St.
John The Baptist, St. Tammany, Upper Jefferson, Upper
Lafourche, Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard, Upper
Terrebonne, Washington, West Baton Rouge, and West Feliciana.
In Mississippi, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, and Pearl River.
* through Tuesday morning
* Widespread rainfall will become heavy at times, especially along
the daily lake and gulf breezes. Rainfall rates at times will
range 2 to 4 inches per hour. Rainfall accumulations over the
seven day period could easily exceed ten inches within the watch
area.
* Impacts include standing water in streets to the point of
impassible roadways and rapid rises on area creeks and streams.
Drainage systems may approach capacity at times during periods
of heaviest rainfall.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
The latest Euro has it making landfall as a strong tropical storm in the southern Louisiana coast.
HWRF has it making landfall as a weak tropical storm on the Louisiana coast.
HMON has it making landfall as a strong tropical storm on the Louisiana
coast.
HMON has it making landfall as a strong tropical storm on the Louisiana
So it looks like most models for the 12Z runs are holding steady with a Louisiana landfall, but differing on strength. We'll know more when Cristobal finally emerges back into the Gulf I guess.
Cristobal has weakened a bit according to the latest advisory:
Interesting wording from the latest discussion. It seems the atmospheric environment won't be particularly conducive strengthening over the Gulf, so at least not too much to prepare for, other than rain of course.
Hoping they rename it again maybe it will dissipate enough on land to get another. Imagine 3 storms from same system in that area already getting 35”+ of rain.
Haha, yeah I've told some folks that Cristobal is Amanda's son, and if he dissipates and spawns another storm, that'd be his daughter, Dolly!
If it’s stationary I wonder if it’s gonna try making its north move soon
Shoot it may be there for another 12-24 maybe even 36
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,660
- Reaction score
- 10,817
Is half over land and half over water?
I think the entire center of circulation is over land it looks to only be by about 30-40 miles though
Last edited:
He almost appears to be drifting south right now.
10 PM update from the NHC ... still stationary:
878
WTNT43 KNHC 040239
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
Geostationary satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy,
Mexico, indicate that Cristobal has moved very little since the
previous advisory, and that the convective structure of the cyclone
remains fairly well-organized with several bands wrapping around the
circulation. The center is still located just south of Ciudad del
Carmen, and the observing site at that location reported a pressure
of around 995 mb earlier this evening. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 40 kt, assuming some reduction in wind speed has
taken place. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or so while the center moves slowly inland over eastern
Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico on Friday and some re-intensification is forecast to
occur. After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast
while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast, but
the overall environment is not expected to be particularly
conducive for intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast
shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous advisory,
and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model
and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.
Although Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past several
hours, a slow southeastward or eastward motion should commence
overnight. Increasing southerly flow around a strengthening ridge
over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to begin moving
northward on Friday, and a northward or north-northwestward motion
should continue through Saturday with Cristobal approaching the
northern Gulf coast by later in the weekend. The new NHC track
forecast is again very similar to the previous NHC advisory and is
close to the various consensus models.
The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 48 through 72 hours.
Key Messages:
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday morning, especially over western Campeche, eastern
Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.
3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 18.3N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.0N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 18.4N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 19.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1200Z 23.1N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 24.9N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 28.8N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Brown
878
WTNT43 KNHC 040239
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
Geostationary satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy,
Mexico, indicate that Cristobal has moved very little since the
previous advisory, and that the convective structure of the cyclone
remains fairly well-organized with several bands wrapping around the
circulation. The center is still located just south of Ciudad del
Carmen, and the observing site at that location reported a pressure
of around 995 mb earlier this evening. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 40 kt, assuming some reduction in wind speed has
taken place. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or so while the center moves slowly inland over eastern
Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico on Friday and some re-intensification is forecast to
occur. After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast
while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast, but
the overall environment is not expected to be particularly
conducive for intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast
shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous advisory,
and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model
and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.
Although Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past several
hours, a slow southeastward or eastward motion should commence
overnight. Increasing southerly flow around a strengthening ridge
over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to begin moving
northward on Friday, and a northward or north-northwestward motion
should continue through Saturday with Cristobal approaching the
northern Gulf coast by later in the weekend. The new NHC track
forecast is again very similar to the previous NHC advisory and is
close to the various consensus models.
The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 48 through 72 hours.
Key Messages:
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday morning, especially over western Campeche, eastern
Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.
3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 18.3N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.0N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 18.4N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 19.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1200Z 23.1N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 24.9N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 28.8N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Brown
BufordWX
Member
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory 10:
...CRISTOBAL MOVING VERY LITTLE WHILE IT CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...
LOCATION: 18.3°N 91.8°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: Stationary
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 mb
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 mph
NHC Track/Intensity Forecast:
12H: 40 MPH...INLAND
24H: 35 MPH...INLAND
36H: 35 MPH...INLAND
48H: 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H: 50 MPH
72H: 60 MPH
96H: 60 MPH
120H: 35 MPH...INLAND
...CRISTOBAL MOVING VERY LITTLE WHILE IT CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...
LOCATION: 18.3°N 91.8°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: Stationary
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 mb
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 mph
NHC Track/Intensity Forecast:
12H: 40 MPH...INLAND
24H: 35 MPH...INLAND
36H: 35 MPH...INLAND
48H: 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H: 50 MPH
72H: 60 MPH
96H: 60 MPH
120H: 35 MPH...INLAND
BufordWX
Member
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory 10A:
...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
LOCATION: 18.0°N 91.5°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: SE at 3 mph
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 mb (+2)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 mph (-5)
...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
LOCATION: 18.0°N 91.5°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: SE at 3 mph
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 mb (+2)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 mph (-5)
Pretty quiet in here this morning. Still looks like LA is in the crosshairs as of this morning.
I can't remember, do TS that drop to depressions lose their name?
Also, hoping this one somehow just dissipates, though I know that is unlikely. I'm supposed to be in Gulf Shores this weekend.
Also, hoping this one somehow just dissipates, though I know that is unlikely. I'm supposed to be in Gulf Shores this weekend.