• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Tropical storm Claudette

Why are we calling a system in that is only 48-72 hours out the long range? All major models show the southeast and carolinas getting hit with widespread 2-6" of rain. There is no basis to think we are not going to be getting anything out of the system. Unless things completely derail from a consistent showing of the models for almost a week now, bet on it raining.
 
iGRXY said:
Why are we calling a system in that is only 48-72 hours out the long range? All major models show the southeast and carolinas getting hit with widespread 2-6" of rain. There is no basis to think we are not going to be getting anything out of the system. Unless things completely derail from a consistent showing of the models for almost a week now, bet on it raining.
Click to expand...
Southeast yes, exact locations no, and depending on what part of the Carolinas still some uncertainty. Just look at last night's model runs as Allan Huffman points out in his tweet

 
A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM
CDT (2100 UTC).
 
Brent said:
A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM
CDT (2100 UTC).
[/QUOThurricane-michael-meme.jpg
Click to expand...
 
SD said:
I do wonder if the rain is more expensive an heavier to the north. Hep! The straws to grasp are getting less and lessView attachment 85436
Click to expand...
Probably because I don't think it will be as compact as the Euro is showing as it moves across SC, but then again the S/SE shifts might not be over

edit: also, I really don't know what I'm talking about so there is always that
 
SD said:
I do wonder if the rain is more expensive an heavier to the north. Hep! The straws to grasp are getting less and lessView attachment 85436
Click to expand...
I don’t think you’re grasping at straws. Tropical systems from the Gulf always have the heaviest rain shield to the north and northwest of the center once inland with more scattered stuff to the east and southeast. Also the rain is typically more expansive the north and west. Also the jet placement and dynamics would also favor heavier rain further NW
 
LR HRRR has trended more southeast with the low placement. Oof. I wonder if models are are going to eventually make this thing riding the coast lol.
 
Tropical systems is my 2nd favorite to track with my 1st favorite being winter weather. I love how tricky tropical systems can be track can change all the way to landfall with just little wobbles here and there all of that is exciting to me. These storms have a mind of there own sometimes


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jessy89 said:
So NHC certainly isn’t buying the more SE track depicted by euro.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I think it’s more that they would like to see more than 1 or 2 runs and probably get some more model support to change the forecast track much. I am suprised though that they didn’t widen the cone a bit as there is a fairly large spread for 72-96 hours out. One thing that it does appear they are buying from the Euro is this stay a closed low as they still have a Depression at 1pm Sunday.
 
Chazwin said:
I think it’s more that they would like to see more than 1 or 2 runs and probably get some more model support to change the forecast track much. I am suprised though that they didn’t widen the cone a bit as there is a fairly large spread for 72-96 hours out. One thing that it does appear they are buying from the Euro is this stay a closed low as they still have a Depression at 1pm Sunday.
Click to expand...

I don't think the cone changes size based off uncertainty it's based off history and it's an average error
 
I actually think with the westerly shear this will be a bias corrected east storm. I don't think it really matters a whole lot, but interested to see how this is almost stronger over land vs water (euro showing this)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top