• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Tropical Storm Cindy

7ca5b734a057007b50dfd63dae8b63c9.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
It can rain all it wants this week, but this dang thing is making me nervous. I can't be having a soaker of a day on Saturday and I guess it really depends on the speed of this thing, but man it's got me nervous with our outdoor wedding. Seems like Saturday was looking okay on the models up until the past 24 hours or so.
 
Parker said:
It can rain all it wants this week, but this dang thing is making me nervous. I can't be having a soaker of a day on Saturday and I guess it really depends on the speed of this thing, but man it's got me nervous with our outdoor wedding. Seems like Saturday was looking okay on the models up until the past 24 hours or so.
Click to expand...

Yeah! That's not cool!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Parker said:
It can rain all it wants this week, but this dang thing is making me nervous. I can't be having a soaker of a day on Saturday and I guess it really depends on the speed of this thing, but man it's got me nervous with our outdoor wedding. Seems like Saturday was looking okay on the models up until the past 24 hours or so.
Click to expand...

Yall having it at Pursell Farms?
 
Oz Gfs/gfs para came little more east. Landfall around MS/AL line.
 
There are many eps members that take the system inland over Texas and then slingshot it to the right across the southeast. Get ready for a wet end to the week


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
There are many eps members that take the system inland over Texas and then slingshot it to the right across the southeast. Get ready for a wet end to the week


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah, rain will be the story with this storm
 
Certainly looks as if excessive rainfall will be the biggest threat, should remain disorganized which will limit intensification with most guidance only showing TS strength....

aal93_2017061906_intensity_early.png
 
Storm5 said:
There are many eps members that take the system inland over Texas and then slingshot it to the right across the southeast. Get ready for a wet end to the week


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It'll overshoot the Carolinas and go through VA or something! :(
Bypassing SD,JHS, and myself!
 
metwannabe said:
Certainly looks as if excessive rainfall will be the biggest threat, should remain disorganized which will limit intensification with most guidance only showing TS strength....

aal93_2017061906_intensity_early.png
Click to expand...

Looks like complete crap at the moment . I'll be surprised if recon even goes out today


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Looks like complete crap at the moment . I'll be surprised if recon even goes out today


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
No doubt it's a mess this morning... difficult to tell with vis sat just yet but almost looks like a naked swirl just to the NW of the Yucatan tip and west of the thunderstorm activity, of course their may very well be several low level vorticities within the elongated low pressure area.
 
I know it's early and lots of uncertainty, but local mets are saying to not expect ANYTHING from this in my area, not even rain!
 
Let's all take a moment to lol at the obviously wrong NAM. Would be horrible if true, but it's not going to be that strong. I'm fact, several mesoscale models blow this thing stronger than global models do, or faster.
nam3km_mslp_wind_scus_60.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Let's all take a moment to lol at the obviously wrong NAM. Would be horrible if true, but it's not going to be that strong.
nam3km_mslp_wind_scus_60.png
Click to expand...
Yeah I saw that this morning but decided not to post it.... this belongs in banter. Lol jk, obviously anything can happen but ummm no.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I know it's early and lots of uncertainty, but local mets are saying to not expect ANYTHING from this in my area, not even rain!
Click to expand...

Get a boat then lol and please don't say things like that . JHS won't be able to handle that idea lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
ForsythSnow said:
It's there for sure, and convection appears to be catching up to it. If it does, this thing will look way better later today. Otherwise, hopefully they fly in today. We need to know what it's doing lol.
GANIM2_Gerrv25.jpg
Click to expand...

Animating that image reveals that there does appear to be some wind shear in that location (upper level clouds moving NNE, while lower level clouds moving W). I'm unsure how long that will last though, or if it will have any significant impact on its ability to maintain convection over the center.

Animation link (time-sensitive): https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-b...uality=100&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=15
 
NWMSGuy said:
Would this ultimately depend on strength and who is south and east of the Northeast quadrant of the system?
Click to expand...

Strength seems to be irrelevant. They were discussing the low level shear in response to the flow at 850mb. But yes his would be for areas east of the center . This was their post

Widespread rain is looking quite likely for Thursday as the low
pressure envelope makes its move inland. While the GFS and ECMWF
are several hundred miles apart with the track of the actual low
center, both models indicate an expansive wind field on its
eastern side. A corridor of 35-45 kt flow at 850mb could yield
substantial low-level shear and a threat for tornadoes on
Thursday. This threat could be introduced into the HWO, but will
require future model agreement and consistency.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
^^^^^ Unfortunately there's some peeps in Ga, SC and NC that would be left out with any of those tracks..... which seems very plausible
 
metwannabe said:
^^^^^ Unfortunately there's some peeps in Ga, SC and NC that would be left out with any of those tracks..... which seems very plausible
Click to expand...
Except that the moisture plume will stretch far eastward, so SC and GA and later on NC would get tons of rain. So long as you look at the flow of moisture you will see that us out here will still get tons of rain. The GFS from this morning seems to be a good example.
gfs_apcpn_seus_20.png
 
metwannabe said:
^^^^^ Unfortunately there's some peeps in Ga, SC and NC that would be left out with any of those tracks..... which seems very plausible
Click to expand...

I totally disagree . The fetch of moisture is massive . Any of those tracks will work . Look I just need JHS and SD to receive some rain .
4c30fe47f093e29c811be60b00dd747a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ForsythSnow said:
Except that the moisture plume will stretch far eastward, so SC and GA and later on NC would get tons of rain. So long as you look at the flow of moisture you will see that us out here will still get tons of rain. The GFS from this morning seems to be a good example.
gfs_apcpn_seus_20.png
Click to expand...
Saying they would be "left out" poor choice of words, however if it develops and tracks that far inland the heaviest rain or tons of rain will be along and east of the track. I definitely should have left Ga out of the statement but the map you posted there shows tons of rain along the coast into Al & Ga and if you continue out further it does increase some up this way but nothing like along the track.... Many variables here including how it interacts with a stalled out front, when it develops, where it goes, etc and I know how to follow the flow of moisture. I'm no expert never claimed to be but pretty sure I've followed storms longer than you've been on this earth. Part of my comment also was for the purposes of a few guys on here who've missed out on tons of rain lately when everything pointed to them getting it.... it's weather, it's why it's fun to watch and follow along.
 
Storm5 said:
I totally disagree . The fetch of moisture is massive . Any of those tracks will work . Look I just need JHS and SD to receive some rain .
4c30fe47f093e29c811be60b00dd747a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I totally disagree too, I totally disagree with myself most of the time Lol.... glad I could invoke some good discussion
 
Those tracks would still be ok in NC, SC, and GA as long as the system stays disorganized. A more tightly wound up system would indeed mean most areas southeast of I-85 in the 3 states would miss out. Upslope flow alone would give areas northwest of that interstate good rains unless we happened to be under a closed upper ridge of high pressure.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top