Tropical Tropical Storm Cindy

[pcbjr]

Until the Hurricane Hunters fly in tomorrow, I would take all paths and strengths with a grain of salt as well. We should know better by tomorrow, assuming the mission isn't cancelled.

You articulate so much better than I ...

 

[Storm5]

12z EPS

12z gefs

Gefs is slowly heading towards the eps and euro solution it appears . Either way, one is going have an extreme bust


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[pcbjr]

12z EPS

12z gefs

Gefs is slowly heading towards the eps and euro solution it appears . Either way, one is going have an extreme bust


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At this stage of the game, that's the real fun part - guessing ...
Wanna start a pre-COC/recon pool? Winner gets a ride in the Humvee to the airport for a jaunt on the plane?

 

[Storm5]

At this stage of the game, that's the real fun part - guessing ...
Wanna start a pre-COC/recon pool? Winner gets a ride in the Humvee to the airport for a jaunt on the plane?

That's the thing the models don't known what to key on. I'm still in the euro camp. The pool should be if recon actually goes out tomorrow .....


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[pcbjr]

That's the thing the models don't known what to key on. I'm still in the euro camp. The pool should be if recon actually goes out tomorrow .....


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Start the pool when ready - but plan to drive the H2 to G'ville to pick me up for a ride to the airport and a jaunt back on the jet ... 'cause I'm gonna win for sure this time ... LOL

 

[pcbjr]

That's the thing the models don't known what to key on

Exactly ...

 

[pcbjr]

Not much yet to look at ...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/pro...ting_image=2017AL93_16KMGWVP_201706171745.GIF

 

[Storm5]

And of course the 18z Gfs goes back right lol


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[ForsythSnow]

And of course the 18z Gfs goes back right lol


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In the next hour we will know what the HWRF shows. It's running right now.

 

[pcbjr]

of course

no 2 better words, my friend ...

 

[ForsythSnow]

HWRF seems to be sluggish, and towards the Euro, but the NAVGEM is back North again, going from just south of Louisiana, then westward toward Texas.

 

[pcbjr]

HWRF seems to be sluggish, and towards the Euro, but the NAVGEM is back North again, going from just south of Louisiana, then westward toward Texas.

If and when there is a COC the dart game begins ... until then, it's barroom disco

 

[ForsythSnow]

Actually, it heads toward Louisiana.

 

[pcbjr]

Not a whole lot new from NWS @ 8:00 PM -

Time for a margarita and some Mex ---

 

[Storm5]

18z gefs

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[Storm5]

No surprise but the 18z NAM is 100 percent trending towards the euro its way west this run


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[Snowfan]

NHC Update:
A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while
it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday
and over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico early next week,
where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on
Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

[pcbjr]

One wonders ...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/pro...ting_image=2017AL93_4KMIRIMG_201706172207.GIF

time sensitive loop.

Static for posterity:

 

[pcbjr]

Too big to put into pics; again, time sensitive but worth a look:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/pro...oduct_filename=2017AL93_MPSATWND_201706180000

 

[pcbjr]

BTW - This is just June ...