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Tropical Tropical Storm Cindy

00z NAM continues with the euro trend with regards to the western track idea
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I don't care how far west it comes ashore, just as long as something steers it ENE
 
Storm5 said:
12z EPS
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12z gefs
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Gefs is slowly heading towards the eps and euro solution it appears . Either way, one is going have an extreme bust


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Not much different. Just a few hundred miles apart


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00z Gfs and para Gfs are still northern gulf tracks lol. Something has to give

Edit : the GFS seems is slowing and drifting SW . Let's see if it heads towards the euro. The para went into the panhandle like the previous 6 or so runs


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The extreme mesoscale vorticity growth on the GFS parallel on the NE flank of the monsoon gyre within the next 24-36 hours is just lol and almost certainly not going to verify..
 
From Fla Hurricane:

0Z Euro is stronger this morning and still moves west, but gets into lanfall near Port O'Connor Texas on Thursday, which is a bit of a shift north at the end.

6Z GFS Operational is a bit stronger, and into Panama City Wednesday morning, as a Tropical Storm (again most of the rain is to the east)

GFS Para shifted slightly west with a Ft. Walton/ Destin Landfall late Tuesday evening/early Wednesday morning as a cat 1 or 2 hurricane.

The hurricane specific models HWRF/GFDL don't have a good enough handle on the system yet to be of much use.

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ForsythSnow said:
Lol I think they are all caving to each other. Maybe they are going to settle on Louisina.
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I mean the Gfs and para have been rock solid . The Cmc is all over the damn place . But the euro has been rock solid as well however it did shift NE on its last run


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Damn the GEFS and EPS are still worlds apart . Gefs favors central gulf coast , EPS favors central / southern Texas. Can't wait to see who caves first


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Storm5 said:
Damn the GEFS and EPS are still worlds apart . Gefs favors central gulf coast , EPS favors central / southern Texas. Can't wait to see who caves first


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The GEFS are going to cave just like JB's idea of moderate El Niño is caving...LOL!


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whatalife said:
The GEFS are going to cave just like JB's idea of moderate El Niño is caving...LOL!


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I just think it's funny all these big wigs have been saying for days the Gfs and para are wrong. Might turn out to be right but it's funny the declarations made so far out


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Storm5 said:
I just think it's funny all these big wigs have been saying for days the Gfs and para are wrong. Might turn out to be right but it's funny the declarations made so far out


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with no COC to even work with ...
 
Storm5 said:
I just think it's funny all these big wigs have been saying for days the Gfs and para are wrong. Might turn out to be right but it's funny the declarations made so far out


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Yeah, making calls saying where they think it will go without an investigated storm, which is being done today, is premature, especially when you have a large audience.
Storm5 said:
Convection does look good but looks east of the LLC


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It certainly does. If that was further west, I would say we have a storm.
 
Storm5 said:
I just think it's funny all these big wigs have been saying for days the Gfs and para are wrong. Might turn out to be right but it's funny the declarations made so far out


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So true. I just have enough experience w/GEFS not to trust it but we'll see. I'm all in for the rain that would bring us.


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whatalife said:
So true. I just have enough experience w/GEFS not to trust it but we'll see. I'm all in for the rain that would bring us.


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I trust no model in tropical season . I've seen the euro bust , the eps bust , gefs . Truth is we have seen them all bust . If this were winter I'd ride the the JMA


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Storm5 said:
This ladies and gents is what is called a spread
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Yep. Should be fun to see where this one goes. Here's hoping for a solution that brings most of the SE rain...


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Storm5 said:
I trust no model in tropical season . I've seen the euro bust , the eps bust , gefs . Truth is we have seen them all bust . If this were winter I'd ride the the JMA


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LOL. All models are completely even chances each year to me, and if a model succeeds in predicting a storm in a season, it gets a bit more reliability unless it busts on the next storm horribly. Can't go by model accuracy on winter storms during hurricane season.
 
Storm5 said:
I trust no model in tropical season . I've seen the euro bust , the eps bust , gefs . Truth is we have seen them all bust . If this were winter I'd ride the the JMA


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To be honest w/you I'm just throwing crap out. I haven't seen any of the models over the last day or so. Just wanted to get in a jab at JB


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ForsythSnow said:
LOL. All models are completely even chances each year to me, and if a model succeeds in predicting a storm in a season, it gets a bit more reliability unless it busts on the next storm horribly. Can't go by model accuracy on winter storms during hurricane season.
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HAHA! So true.


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whatalife said:
To be honest w/you I'm just throwing crap out. I haven't seen any of the models over the last day or so. Just wanted to get in a jab at JB


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How dare you take a jab at Webbers favorite met

I just can't wait for winter and the twitter lessons Eric gives JB. They were epic last winter


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Storm5 said:
Who dare you take a jab at Webbers favorite met

I just can't wait for winter and the twitter lessons Eric gives JB. They were epic last winter


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HAHA! It will be epic.

I figured I needed to clarify my statement before being crucified for leaning one way or another w/a model...


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whatalife said:
To be honest w/you I'm just throwing crap out. I haven't seen any of the models over the last day or so. Just wanted to get in a jab at JB


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JB still going with Euro this AM! He's special
 
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to begin investigating 93L by about 330pm or so late this afternoon, with another aircraft scheduled for early tomorrow morning. The influx of data retrieved by these missions should significantly aid in model forecasts and allow for more accurate initializations. Passage near/over the Yucatan Peninsula will still provide a major stumbling block for NWP and I wouldn't be surprised to see a LLC form over the north or western coast of the Yucatan where low level frictional convergence is maximized (as opposed to the Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf as the GFS currently implores)
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Webberweather53 said:
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to begin investigating 93L by about 330pm or so late this afternoon, with another aircraft scheduled for early tomorrow morning The influx of data retrieved by these missions should significantly aid in model forecasts and allow for more accurate initializations. Passage near/over the Yucatan Peninsula will still provide a major stumbling block for NWP and I wouldn't be surprised to see a LLC form over the north or western coast of the Yucatan where low level frictional convergence is maximized (as opposed to the Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf as the GFS currently implores)
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Webb - 100%
Data is the missing component so far!
Best,
Phil
 
As we await confirmation from recon later this afternoon, surface observations seem to suggest 93L's low level center is attempting to form on the east coast of the Yucatan, as indicated by the light WNW winds at Belize City which shift to out of the ESE towards the Yucatan Channel. As I mentioned earlier this is also where low level frictional convergence is currently being maximized by the differential in coefficient of friction between the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent water in the NW Caribbean. Although it's certainly possible that a new low level center forms underneath the rapidly deteriorating convective mass further east and concomitant mid level center evident on satellite, I would be a bit more hesitant to lean towards that solution in this instance considering how much further from the wave axis this would place the LLC and given that there are already earth relative westerlies on the Belize coast. While visual appeasing to get sucked into thinking a LLC is underneath the gargantuan convective blob over the Cayman islands, all the winds at the surface underneath that convective mass are out of the SE, with most of the rotation observed on satellite being confined relatively close to the level of maximum heating (~700 hPa).
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Webberweather53 said:
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to begin investigating 93L by about 330pm or so late this afternoon, with another aircraft scheduled for early tomorrow morning. The influx of data retrieved by these missions should significantly aid in model forecasts and allow for more accurate initializations. Passage near/over the Yucatan Peninsula will still provide a major stumbling block for NWP and I wouldn't be surprised to see a LLC form over the north or western coast of the Yucatan where low level frictional convergence is maximized (as opposed to the Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf as the GFS currently implores)
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Thanks for the update. Data will surely aid the models.


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Yeah nine out of ten times, the LLC never forms under a convective blob in this area. Based on what I've seen in the past, definitely go for the option of the LLC forming right on the Yucatan.
 
GFS low mid level height bias on display at its finest here. Look how much stronger the subtropical ridge to the north of 93L is being analyzed at today's 12z initialization vs the 6z run's 6 hour forecast. Lol, how many times have we seen this movie before?
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accu35 said:
I think when its final, it will be a central gulf coast hit
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I agree. I would say that this has been interesting to watch so far, but I would say that the NAVGEM has been probably the better model out of them all. It seems to know where the other models will go. The Euro caved to a US solution, while the others caved to a more west solution and I bet the convergence is Between Texas and Mobile.
 
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