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Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024

Shaggy said:
Wouldn't go off that one satellite with that huge flare up in the east side. Could just be clouded over with cirrus as that eastern semicircle goes nuts. Microwave data would be much more accurate
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Yeah that image was at 4:45am AST and I just didn't think 4-5 hours would be enough time to clear the eye and begin the ramp-up in intensity. Wind field sure got bigger. Carriacou is going to be devastated!
 
NHC moved cone further south. Current thought: No threading of the needle on this one.

02L_intensity_latest (1).png085933_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
abizzle said:
Yeah that image was at 4:45am AST and I just didn't think 4-5 hours would be enough time to clear the eye and begin the ramp-up in intensity. Wind field sure got bigger. Carriacou is going to be devastated!
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It did it in pretty impressive time. Hole it's not a harbinger of the potential for RI amd strong storms this year but with the water temps being so much above avg its not a good sign
 
I believe if I saw correctly first pass has a pressure of 956 which is 9mb lower than the 5am advisory
 
Shaggy said:
It did it in pretty impressive time. Hole it's not a harbinger of the potential for RI amd strong storms this year but with the water temps being so much above avg its not a good sign
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I thought I saw the temps in that area were 84 right now. I'll have to look up what the normal average is. It was warm in February because I was swimming in it!

The temperatures in Grenada are pretty consistent year round... about 73-75 at night and 85-87 during the day. The humidity runs about 80%. It's like a Louisiana Spring year-round! I've never been anywhere outside the US until this year and Grenada was like paradise. I made some welcome changes in my life after seeing the sunrise for 21 days.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not to mention the wind intensity in the NE eye really increasing from earlier. Likely going under another intensification phase.
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Yeah just saw that. Peak 10s wind of 116kts. Probably gonna head back up towards cat 4 as it passes through the islands
 
Next update scheduled for less than an hour from now.

Highlighted 31 KM/H for easy math for less than 3 hours from Carriacou Island.

900 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...900 AM POSITION UPDATE...

Beryl is nearing the Windward Islands and expected to make landfall
within the next few hours.

A weather station in Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of
44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (95 km/h).

Another position update will be provided at 1000 AM AST (1400 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 60.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
 
recon_AF301-0602A-BERYL.png
 
163000 1237N 06147W 6967 02707 9451 +193 +119 192019 035 050 000 00
11:30 CDT
 
100 PM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUE IN
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...

Beryl continues to produce catastrophic winds and life-threatening
storm surge to the Grenadine Islands, Carriacou Island, and Grenada.
This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.
Residents should not leave their shelter and remain in place through
the passage of these life-threatening conditions.

A weather station at Grenada airport recently reported a sustained
wind speed of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust of 121 mph (194 km/h).

A weather station in St. Lucia recently reported a sustained wind
speed of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (102 km/h).

This is the last hourly Tropical Cyclone Update on Beryl. The next
intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES
 
Brent said:
Almost a Cat 5... There's only been one in July in 2005
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2005 consisted of 15 hurricanes of which eight became major hurricanes with four of those reaching category 5 status. It was the first time a season had exceed 21 named storms with a record 28 tropical cyclones named in a season since 1933. With 15 hurricanes this also set a record, beating out the old record of 12 from the 1969 season.
 
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