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Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024

lexxnchloe said:
It appears it will run into very unfavorable conditions.

View attachment 148241
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Not sure I'm on board with this. GFS has it hitting the islands at 970 while in reality its hitting at 946 at the moment and may go lower. Will be interested to see what happens to the forecast when they build in reality.
 
12Z HWRF has it at 941 in approach to Jamaica and 953 at approach to Cayman. That is extremely different than GFS, but I'm an HWRF fan so I can buy in to the possibility until I see something different. So far HWRF has performed much better than other models on this storm.

hwrf_mslp_uv850_02L_fh54-54.gifhwrf_mslp_uv850_02L_fh72-72.gif
 
Henry2326 said:
12Z HWRF has it at 941 in approach to Jamaica and 953 at approach to Cayman. That is extremely different than GFS, but I'm an HWRF fan so I can buy in to the possibility until I see something different. So far HWRF has performed much better than other models on this storm.

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Looks like some shear but Beryl is such a beast it has little effect.


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That kind of hit on the south side of Jamaica would be catastrophic.


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BHS1975 said:
Looks like some shear but Beryl is such a beast it has little effect.


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12z HWRF is on the northern edge of the NHC cone but half the storm stays over water as it barely threads the needle of the peninsula. HWRF continues to flirt with a more northerly pass of the peninsula with a 945 on approach and 947 as it comes ashore. A more northerly pass would possibly put the US back in play.

NHC acknowledges this in the 2:00 discussion:
"At days 3-5, there is some increased
spread in the track guidance, likely regarding the strength of the
steering ridge as Beryl approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and the Yucatan Peninsula. This portion of the forecast was nudged
slightly north of the previous one, but still lies south of the
consensus aids."


hwrf_mslp_uv850_02L_fh99-99 (1).gif
 
Henry2326 said:
Not sure I'm on board with this. GFS has it hitting the islands at 970 while in reality its hitting at 946 at the moment and may go lower. Will be interested to see what happens to the forecast when they build in reality.
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A 150 mph storm, and the old Saffir-Simpson Scale with Pressure would suggest the pressure could definitely go lower than it is now.


1719860993171.jpeg
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


From https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/012051.shtml
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again
this evening.
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Goalposts is currently off the menu.

205328_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
So close


...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL EVEN STRONGER AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
 
Henry2326 said:
2005 consisted of 15 hurricanes of which eight became major hurricanes with four of those reaching category 5 status. It was the first time a season had exceed 21 named storms with a record 28 tropical cyclones named in a season since 1933. With 15 hurricanes this also set a record, beating out the old record of 12 from the 1969 season.
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How could anyone forget that year? As bad as Katrina was, we know the real catastrophe was the levee failure. Actually, Rita was stronger for us in Baton Rouge than Katrina, as we were on the East side. Even with all of that, the image of Wilma hitting Cozumel was sobering. She had that pinhole eye with gusts of 200mph.
 
1) Jamaica H landfalls since 1950, the first two of which were very bad major H hits from the E

1951: Charlie (E to W)(MH)

1988: Gilbert (E to W)(MH)

2012: Sandy (S to N on E end)


2) Jamaica H close misses since 1950: Ivan and Dean very bad hits just to the S

1950: King (W)

1964: Cleo (N)

1974: Carmen (S)

1980: Allen (N)

2001: Iris (S)

2004: Charley (S) and Ivan (S)(very bad hit)

2005: Dennis (NE)

2007: Dean (S)(very bad hit)
 
0Z UKMET: big changes as it now skirts S coast of Jamaica, about worst possible track for them and would easily be worst hit there since Dean of 2007. Also, now crosses NE Yucatan on way to a central TX landfall with it restrengthening on way to TX. Prior runs landfall way down at Tampico! Ignore the winds (too low) and pressures (too high):

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.07.2024

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.07.2024 0 13.6N 63.8W 965 95
1200UTC 02.07.2024 12 15.2N 67.7W 977 78
0000UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.3N 71.6W 985 69
1200UTC 03.07.2024 36 17.0N 75.3W 995 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.2N 78.8W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 60 19.2N 82.7W 1002 42
0000UTC 05.07.2024 72 20.0N 86.0W 1002 40
1200UTC 05.07.2024 84 21.3N 89.0W 1005 39
0000UTC 06.07.2024 96 22.2N 91.6W 1003 35
1200UTC 06.07.2024 108 24.2N 93.8W 1002 38
0000UTC 07.07.2024 120 25.5N 95.6W 998 36
1200UTC 07.07.2024 132 26.3N 96.5W 994 49
0000UTC 08.07.2024 144 27.2N 97.0W 994 51
1200UTC 08.07.2024 156 28.9N 97.3W 995 38
0000UTC 09.07.2024 168 29.7N 98.3W 998 30
 
Check out the map at the top of page 8. Filled in red. EDIT: The map disappeared.

Also, since I'm posting, the last recon stopped transmitting peak 10-second average surface wind speed and rain rate since 00:59 UTC/7:59 CDT until the end of the mission at 06:01 UTC/1:01 CDT. Prior to the stop the average surface wind speed was 000, so I presume some equipment got damaged entering the eyewall.
 
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