Really took a hit last night! All the gloom and doom , RI talk seems to have ceased! It’s lopsided, and looks like a hot mess. Should lessen impacts and damage, but still give the SE the rain they need!
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Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
jeremyt
Member
Haven’t looked and if anyone knows off of the top of their head, what’s the ACE up to from Beryl?
33.3
Henry2326
Member
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
Recently, a convective burst has developed near the center of Beryl
in the northwestern quadrant, and the low-level center is for the
moment no longer exposed. Tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA
aircraft suggests that the cyclone has become better aligned
vertically during the past few hours, likely due to the effects of
this burst. Reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the central pressure is now near 997 mb,
with the Air Force plane reporting severe turbulence in the
convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt for this advisory
based on the flight-level and SFMR wind data from the two aircraft.
The initial motion is 300/10 kt. Water vapor imagery shows a
developing mid-latitude trough over the central United States that
is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over Texas. Beryl is
expected to turn northwest later today, then turn northward by
48-60 h into the break, with the center making landfall on the
Texas coast. Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently expected
after 72 h. The forecast guidance has not changed much since the
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is basically an update
of the previous track. The new track lies between the main
consensus models and the HCCA corrected consensus model.
Beryl remains in an area of about 15 kt of southerly vertical
shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air
over the southern semicircle of the cyclone. This combination
suggests the possibility that the current convective burst will
weaken later today. After 24 h, the shear is forecast to diminish,
and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that significant
strengthening should occur. Based on this, the intensity forecast
shows only modest strengthening during the first 24 h, followed by
intensification to hurricane strength before landfall in Texas.
The peak intensity is based on the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A and HAFS-B
guidance. After landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with
the system forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure area by
120 h.
It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 48
hours is about 70 miles and the average intensity error is close to
one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge along portions of the lower and middle
Texas coast late Sunday into Monday, where Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches are in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for
portions of deep south Texas and additional warnings will likely be
required later today. Interests in these areas should follow any
advice given by local officials.
2. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week.
3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 23.0N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.7N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.9N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 26.2N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 27.7N 96.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 29.3N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 30.9N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 11/1200Z 36.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
Recently, a convective burst has developed near the center of Beryl
in the northwestern quadrant, and the low-level center is for the
moment no longer exposed. Tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA
aircraft suggests that the cyclone has become better aligned
vertically during the past few hours, likely due to the effects of
this burst. Reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the central pressure is now near 997 mb,
with the Air Force plane reporting severe turbulence in the
convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt for this advisory
based on the flight-level and SFMR wind data from the two aircraft.
The initial motion is 300/10 kt. Water vapor imagery shows a
developing mid-latitude trough over the central United States that
is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over Texas. Beryl is
expected to turn northwest later today, then turn northward by
48-60 h into the break, with the center making landfall on the
Texas coast. Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently expected
after 72 h. The forecast guidance has not changed much since the
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is basically an update
of the previous track. The new track lies between the main
consensus models and the HCCA corrected consensus model.
Beryl remains in an area of about 15 kt of southerly vertical
shear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air
over the southern semicircle of the cyclone. This combination
suggests the possibility that the current convective burst will
weaken later today. After 24 h, the shear is forecast to diminish,
and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that significant
strengthening should occur. Based on this, the intensity forecast
shows only modest strengthening during the first 24 h, followed by
intensification to hurricane strength before landfall in Texas.
The peak intensity is based on the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A and HAFS-B
guidance. After landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with
the system forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure area by
120 h.
It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 48
hours is about 70 miles and the average intensity error is close to
one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge along portions of the lower and middle
Texas coast late Sunday into Monday, where Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches are in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for
portions of deep south Texas and additional warnings will likely be
required later today. Interests in these areas should follow any
advice given by local officials.
2. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week.
3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 23.0N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.7N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.9N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 26.2N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 27.7N 96.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 29.3N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 30.9N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 11/1200Z 36.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Brent
Member
Shes pissed off 
Henry2326
Member
12z HWRF
Really good points here. I’m trying to go through storms in my mind where they were able to really crank after a Cat 4-5 state, then landfall and having to start the inner core over again; I can’t remember any. I remember several that were expected to really strengthen though.
lexxnchloe
Member
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF TEXAS...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 93.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
Baffin Bay northward to Sargent.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast
north of Sargent to High Island.
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from North Entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore northward to San Luis Pass,
including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the Texas coast east of
High Island to Sabine Pass.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF TEXAS...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 93.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
Baffin Bay northward to Sargent.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast
north of Sargent to High Island.
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from North Entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore northward to San Luis Pass,
including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the Texas coast east of
High Island to Sabine Pass.
Henry2326
Member
18z HWRF......a little slower than 12z and lower pressure to 966.
Brent
Member
If this thing is going to bomb it's got work to do. East side is very lopsided
DOWN TO 993 ON THE LATEST PASS FROM NOAA AND 992 FROM AF RECON
FROM OUT LOCAL MET IN ALABAMA
Visible satellite imagery seems to indicate that strong convection is wrapping completely around the center. I am anxious to get the recon mission in the storm to see what is going on. The SHIPS Intensity Forecast indicates a fairly decent chance of rapid intensification. Dr, Ryan Maue reminded us that 2017’s Hurricane Harvey didn’t look as good as Beryl does 48 hours before landfall. There is a chance that Beryl could be much stronger at landfall than forecast.
FAST FACTS ON BERYL
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.9N 93.0W
ABOUT 385 MI…615 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES
WARNING SUMMARY
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to Sargent
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The Texas coast north of Sargent to San Luis Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The Texas coast north of Sargent to High Island
* The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis
Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward
to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore
* San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay
HURRICANE HUNTERS
NOAA Hurricane Hunters are enroute to Beryl from their base in Lakeland FL. They will be on station by 7 p.m. CDT doing low level reconnaissance and center penetrations and tail Doppler radar data. An Air Force plane will depart this evening for fixes after midnight.
MODELS
Fortunately, the HWRF and the HMON don’t predict rapid intensification, both bringing the storm in at about 970-975 mb. The HWRF is stronger with winds around 95 mph. The HMON has winds around 75 mph.
The new models, the HAFS-A and HAFS-B are consistent on track with the A coming in around 975 mb and 75 mph. The B model is about same for pressure, but stronger with winds above 90 mph.
WIND
Not much has changed in the wind forecast
SURGE
Peak surge has been edged up to 4-6 feet for areas from Mesquito Bay to Sargent, including the large area around Matagorda Bay. Here is a complete rundown of the surge forecast. The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mesquite Bay, TX to Sargent, TX…4-6 ft
Matagorda Bay…4-6 ft
Sargent, TX to San Luis Pass, TX…3-5 ft
N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX to Mesquite Bay, TX…3-5 ft
Corpus Christi Bay…3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX…2-4
ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Cameron, LA…1-3 ft
RAIN
The heaviest rain will be between Victoria and Houston and College Station. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through midweek. This rainfall
will likely produce areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally considerable. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible.
FROM OUT LOCAL MET IN ALABAMA
Visible satellite imagery seems to indicate that strong convection is wrapping completely around the center. I am anxious to get the recon mission in the storm to see what is going on. The SHIPS Intensity Forecast indicates a fairly decent chance of rapid intensification. Dr, Ryan Maue reminded us that 2017’s Hurricane Harvey didn’t look as good as Beryl does 48 hours before landfall. There is a chance that Beryl could be much stronger at landfall than forecast.
FAST FACTS ON BERYL
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.9N 93.0W
ABOUT 385 MI…615 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES
WARNING SUMMARY
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to Sargent
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The Texas coast north of Sargent to San Luis Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The Texas coast north of Sargent to High Island
* The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis
Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward
to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore
* San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay
HURRICANE HUNTERS
NOAA Hurricane Hunters are enroute to Beryl from their base in Lakeland FL. They will be on station by 7 p.m. CDT doing low level reconnaissance and center penetrations and tail Doppler radar data. An Air Force plane will depart this evening for fixes after midnight.
MODELS
Fortunately, the HWRF and the HMON don’t predict rapid intensification, both bringing the storm in at about 970-975 mb. The HWRF is stronger with winds around 95 mph. The HMON has winds around 75 mph.
The new models, the HAFS-A and HAFS-B are consistent on track with the A coming in around 975 mb and 75 mph. The B model is about same for pressure, but stronger with winds above 90 mph.
WIND
Not much has changed in the wind forecast
SURGE
Peak surge has been edged up to 4-6 feet for areas from Mesquito Bay to Sargent, including the large area around Matagorda Bay. Here is a complete rundown of the surge forecast. The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mesquite Bay, TX to Sargent, TX…4-6 ft
Matagorda Bay…4-6 ft
Sargent, TX to San Luis Pass, TX…3-5 ft
N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX to Mesquite Bay, TX…3-5 ft
Corpus Christi Bay…3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX…2-4
ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Cameron, LA…1-3 ft
RAIN
The heaviest rain will be between Victoria and Houston and College Station. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through midweek. This rainfall
will likely produce areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally considerable. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible.
Belle Lechat
Member
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rburrel2
Member
You can tell he’s about to vent and go boom.
Getting closer to being stacked now from what I just read elsewhere. I assume convection has diminished partly due to the recent DMIN (late daytime). Let’s see whether or not it refires closer to DMAX (late night).
It doesn’t seem to me in a much different condition from what was expected for today due to nearby mid-level dry air along with not being stacked due to shear.
Tomorrow was always supposed to be the day for significant (to possibly a period of rapid) strengthening. I could see cat 3 on high end because of a rise of SSTs from 85F where it is to an area of 86-88F to be crossed before landfall. But cat 2 is probably a more reasonable expectation as of now. A strengthening cat 2 would be a beast, itself.
It doesn’t seem to me in a much different condition from what was expected for today due to nearby mid-level dry air along with not being stacked due to shear.
Tomorrow was always supposed to be the day for significant (to possibly a period of rapid) strengthening. I could see cat 3 on high end because of a rise of SSTs from 85F where it is to an area of 86-88F to be crossed before landfall. But cat 2 is probably a more reasonable expectation as of now. A strengthening cat 2 would be a beast, itself.