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Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024

Levi Cowan’s latest (7 min video), which was recorded within the last hour:

 
GaWx said:
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images
show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and
Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although
still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62
kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind
speed is raised to 55 kt.

Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm
waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry
air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or
so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on
the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up
until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the
possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall.

Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt. The storm
should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall
along the middle Texas coast early on Monday. The new forecast
is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After
Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system
accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical
cyclone. This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into
Missouri.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

*Edit: note the forecasted 85 mph as of 7AM CDT is when it has already been inland a few hours thus implying higher forecasted landfalling max winds.
Click to expand...
There it is again from NHC....
"Rapid intensification is a DISTINCT POSSIBILITY".....

That means that it clearly could happen......
 
Henry2326 said:
There it is again from NHC....
"Rapid intensification is a DISTINCT POSSIBILITY".....

That means that it clearly could happen......
Click to expand...

Indeed, rapid for a short period is possible. That’s why I feel a cat 2 (~100 mph) like the 6Z HWRF has is a very reasonable possibility. Note that should it occur that this would be RI (due to the low shear and up to 88F SSTs) as opposed to historic/explosive intensification like what Beryl did on approach to the Windwards. The center’s too broad for that, fortunately. But a strengthening cat 2 would be bad enough. I earlier mentioned an outside shot at a low end cat 3, but I feel that’s become an even more remote possibility now. So, either a cat 1 or else a 2 (if there’s RI) is my current call.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, rapid for a short period is possible. That’s why I feel a cat 2 (~100 mph) like the 6Z HWRF has is a very reasonable possibility. Note that should it occur that this would be RI (due to the low shear and up to 88F SSTs) as opposed to historic/explosive intensification like what Beryl did on approach to the Windwards. The center’s too broad for that, fortunately. But a strengthening cat 2 would be bad enough. I earlier mentioned an outside shot at a low end cat 3, but I feel that’s become an even more remote possibility now. So, either a cat 1 or else a 2 (if there’s RI) is my current call.
Click to expand...

Soon after I further minimized the chance for a low end cat 3 as per the above, the 12Z has exactly that, a 960 mb 112 mph landfall. With my thinking not having changed over the last hour and the other 12Z hurricane runs having only a cat 1/970s lowest SLP, I'm discounting this outlier at least for now. Besides, the HWRF sometimes is too strong.
 
From NHC:

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to gradual organize
with more banding features near the center, expanding outflow and
strong bursts of convection rotating around the eyewall. However,
dry air is still present within the inner core, keeping the
intensification slow at this time, with only a broken banded
eyewall structure. While the central pressure reported by an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has fallen to 988 mb, there
hasn't been much change in the winds reported, so the intensity
remains 55 kt.

The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is
becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl
should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and
light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the
storm.

All of the model guidance respond to these conditions by
showing a large increase in deep convection near the center and
higher winds. However, some less predictable factors could prevent
a big increase in winds, including dry air in the inner core, a
somewhat large radius of maximum winds, and slightly faster landfall
timing. Given that the regional hurricane models still show
significant deepening, the official forecast continues to call for
near rapid intensification through landfall.

Beryl has turned north-northwest at about 10 kt. The storm should
turn northward overnight before making landfall along the middle
Texas coast early on Monday before dawn. The new forecast is very
close to the previous one through landfall. After Beryl moves
inland, the latest guidance turns the system northeastward late
tomorrow and it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The long-term
track is a bit faster and east of the last one, consistent with a
blend of the ECMWF and GFS models.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island
National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and
Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice
given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass.

3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight
through Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas
Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding
is also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 26.8N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 28.3N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 30.4N 95.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 32.6N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1800Z 34.9N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 10/0600Z 37.2N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 39.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
GaWx said:
Soon after I further minimized the chance for a low end cat 3 as per the above, the 12Z has exactly that, a 960 mb 112 mph landfall. With my thinking not having changed over the last hour and the other 12Z hurricane runs having only a cat 1/970s lowest SLP, I'm discounting this outlier at least for now. Besides, the HWRF sometimes is too strong.
Click to expand...
No surprise, I'm all in with HWRF. It's basically the only model that has been effective with this storm.
4:00 NHC says this which supports the HWRF.

"The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is
becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl
should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the storm."
 
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 95.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning south of Port Aransas has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Port Aransas, including Corpus
Christi Bay, has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Port Mansfield has been
discontinued.
 
GaWx said:
It is slowly getting stronger. The latest extrapolated SLP from recon (as of 30 minutes ago) was 983.7 mb, which was ~2 mb lower than 90 minutes earlier.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's nothing crazy but it has been slowly strengthening for hours

Also winds always lag behind pressure
 
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