Snowflowxxl
Member
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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry
- Thread starter accu35
- Start date
ICON makes landfall as a 995 mb tropical storm in the Louisiana coast @57 hours.
The question in my mind is how long does it take to solidfy the inner core and become a hurricane. It seems like there are two RIC cycles when they happen. One from TS to Cat 2 and the next one from Cat 2 to Cat 4 or 5.
Looking at the current** steering map...this thing really has no choice but to drift S or SSW.....
Brent
Member
Ukmet shifted east but still a western solution also a bit weaker at 963 mb
Brent
Member
Euro in the east camp and weaker actually on strength the Euro and GFS finally agree, the GFS is even more east though towards New Orleans
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Henry2326
Member
My opinion, the 06z Nam solution this morning is devastating for New Orleans. It gives it over water all day Friday, intensifying to 958. But more devastating is the position with NO.
Bama Ravens
Member
The 3km NAM yesterday had what would be the strongest hurricane on record in the Gulf, which isn’t going to happen, so I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM with this.
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Henry2326
Member
I'm looking at the 06z....all the models have a bust occasionally (euro with Florence landfall predicted Charleston...no go).. It escalates in intensity the 24 hours before landfall. I don't put much stock in any single one.....but tend to look for characteristics of each that indicate new possibilities. After Michael, I will never again say "never"....
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I think the big story with this won't be the intensity of the system, but the rain it brings, especially if it goes over New Orleans. We could see major flooding there.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
HMON has this system making landfall on MS. 
Loganatorh
Member
Considering the lack of real ts/td development (no real "eye"), I'm curious what confidence levels are in current track projections. Most seem to agree on the SE LA, but I really hope that isn't the case 
. The flooding in that scenario would be devastating.
. The flooding in that scenario would be devastating.
