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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

SimeonNC said:
That ice map won't happen lol.

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No it won't. The Canadian is infamous for being too cold and spitting out these ridiculous totals. I'm just looking for trends. We can sort out the details using all available models and data to come up with a more reasonable expectation.
 
packfan98 said:
No it won't. The Canadian is infamous for being too cold and spitting out these ridiculous totals. I'm just looking for trends. We can sort out the details using all available models and data to come up with a more reasonable expectation.
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Normally I would agree but the CMC cold bias can actually cause it to do better with CAD events like what we have coming up whereas other models may be too warm. A blend of the data is always the best course and usually closest to reality for sure. Usually the zr maps need to be cut in half or less because you rarely get 100% accrual rate, usually 25-50% when temps are 29-32 range and depending on rate of precip. The FV3 coming in much colder is very interesting since it has been leading the way with this storm.
 
I'm pretty amazed the NWS has chance of snow and sleet for Lavonia GA?? Took me by surprise...Wouldn't it be up to temps only. A few degrees etc?
 
snowlover91 said:
Normally I would agree but the CMC cold bias can actually cause it to do better with CAD events like what we have coming up whereas other models may be too warm. A blend of the data is always the best course and usually closest to reality for sure. Usually the zr maps need to be cut in half or less because you rarely get 100% accrual rate, usually 25-50% when temps are 29-32 range and depending on rate of precip. The FV3 coming in much colder is very interesting since it has been leading the way with this storm.
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I think that the 3k-nam has done the best job overall on our mixing events. We are now just getting into that time frame. It does seem that the models are ticking a touch colder at the surface with the CAD and the low doesn't appear that it's going to amp up. Another marginal event that is fun to track but very difficult to nail the details beforehand.
 
Anyone have the detailed UKMET maps? The ones on meteocentre look cold and wet from what I can see.
 
packfan98 said:
I think that the 3k-nam has done the best job overall on our mixing events. We are now just getting into that time frame. It does seem that the models are ticking a touch colder at the surface with the CAD and the low doesn't appear that it's going to amp up. Another marginal event that is fun to track but very difficult to nail the details beforehand.
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The 3km NAM is definitely the best for p-type in other storms I’ve tracked. We will be getting in its range tonight and fully by 12z tomorrow. I do think this is a system where the CMC could be pretty close with the cold and the overrunning has a lot of potential.
 
Tarheelwx said:
Much more snow in NC than the other models. I’m interested if this is a change for it as well.
TW
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I'm sure that map is showing all frozen precip as 10:1 snow so I'm certain it's not correct. However, it is indicating up to .5" of precip falling as some frozen type NW of I-85. The weather service is going to have their hands full with this on determining if it's going to be a nuisance, advisory, or possibly warning event.
 
I said it yesterday but it bears repeating again today: last year we had a significant ice event on Super Bowl Sunday in which the only models indicating such were the Canadian suite...right up until go-time even. They cannot and should not automatically be discounted, especially since all guidance depicts a ~1040 HP in SE Canada. The point is, more often than not, the CAD regime wins out in such situations.
 
Poimen said:
I said it yesterday but it bears repeating again today: last year we had a significant ice event on Super Bowl Sunday in which the only models indicating such were the Canadian suite...right up until go-time even. They cannot and should not automatically be discounted, especially since all guidance depicts a ~1040 HP in SE Canada. The point is, more often than not, the CAD regime wins out in such situations.
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Valid point, it is difficult to ignore that 1040 HP, regardless of what models show...... I expect warning criteria in your area, advisory a tier or two of counties E/SE of you and watch NWS play catch up with this
 
packfan98 said:
I wonder why this Pivotal snow depth maps are running so high. No I don't believe that there will be this much ground truth, but I think we could use it as a general outline of who may see frozen precip of some type. Here is the 12z FV3:
View attachment 10570
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Still not as insane as the map on TT, good grief..... I shall not post it. It's horrible
 
The RGEM ensembles should be out around 2pm and they go out to 72 hours which should be helpful to see how they handle the cold and storm track. Euro is about to run, let's see if it follows the trend of other 12z guidance which has been colder.
 
packfan98 said:
I wonder why this Pivotal snow depth maps are running so high. No I don't believe that there will be this much ground truth, but I think we could use it as a general outline of who may see frozen precip of some type. Here is the 12z FV3:
View attachment 10570
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It also has to be including ip as the zr map is much less..... indication of colder airmass?

Good trend for you guys
 
Little stronger CAD signal on the Euro then yesterday's 12z run...

Yesterday...
ecmwf_mslpa_us_5.png


Today....
ecmwf_mslpa_us_4.png
 
End results about the same, I think we are getting a real good idea of location effected now although temps again could be a degree or two too warm on the Euro based off of that HP location imo
ecmwf_ptype_nc_13.png
 
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