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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

The past 3 runs of the NAM also are trending towards a weaker energy in the Midwest. Notice the closed 552dm closed contour line is gone as of the 12z run and it is more positive tilt.
namconus_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.gif
 
snowlover91 said:
The FV3 4 run trend is towards a washed out, weaker, sheared system. Notice the 850 low goes from a strong closed contour to very weak. Also notice heights in Canada pressing down more. IMO the FV3 is gradually shifting to the sheared out/weaker camp.
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Yeah even I can see that trend. Good eye
snowlover91 said:
The past 3 runs of the NAM also are trending towards a weaker energy in the Midwest. Notice the closed 552dm closed contour line is gone as of the 12z run and it is more positive tilt.
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definately moving towards less amplification. Still rain here so I really don’t have a dog in the fight
 
Jessy89 said:
Would any of this bold better for upstate sc?


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No dice this time Jessey. If you’re lucky you might see some flakes before the low scours our CAD into oblivion. Cold cold rain, buddy. It’s a bad track for the upstate. It’s really not a good storm track for anyone in NC either outside of WNC. Going to be some big time ZR numbers from this one
 
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18z Nam looks really bundled with the energy at hr48 with more ridging in the SE. Looks to get amp up in future panels, I think.

Edit: 2 contour closed ULL at hr 54 over the TX panhandle. I don't think any other model has anything like this??
 
packfan98 said:
18z Nam looks really bundled with the energy at hr48 with more ridging in the SE. Looks to get amp up in future panels, I think.

Edit: 2 contour closed ULL at hr 54 over the TX panhandle. I don't think any other model has anything like this??
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No other models show it closing off like this so far. Also looks like heights are pressing down more over Canada, should be interesting to see where this run ends up.
 
Here's the last frame on the NAM. Not a bad depiction of who may see some frozen precip in my opinion.
1547066695491.png
 
I know the NAM issues with DP's in it's LR but if this verifies and can start throwing some precip in there then the CAD ain't going nowhere...
namconus_Td2m_seus_47.png
 
NAM has our energy washing out hours 78-84 and a pretty solid ice event. We are a bit outside of it's reliable/useful range but interesting to see. LP is also SOUTH like the OP GFS, UK, ICON.
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packfan98 said:
Here's the last frame on the NAM. Not a bad depiction of who may see some frozen precip in my opinion.
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That little sliver of ZR down into Greenville/Anderson used to verify years ago. CAD, for whatever reason, doesn’t dig in as deep as it used to. Boiling Springs and points north and west may get in on some of the initial action
 
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