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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

For the sake of comparison, here is where the 6z FV3 consolidates the energy.... Missouri/Illinois area.
1547061935576.png

The RGEM ensemble mean consolidates the energy further south near Northern Texas/OK area.
1547061966296.png

The closest model I could find to the RGEM mean was the OP GFS and the ICON (ICON is closest). See ICON below.
1547062047634.png
 
Final thoughts lol... the 12z FV3 is running and at 66 hours the 4 run trend has been AWAY from consolidating the energy to the north and it's consolidating it right where the RGEM, ICON and OP GFS are. This IMO lends credence to the suppressed UK/OP GFS/ICON idea.
fv3p_z500_vort_us_fh66_trend.gif
 
snowlover91 said:
For the sake of comparison, here is where the 6z FV3 consolidates the energy.... Missouri/Illinois area.
View attachment 10437

The RGEM ensemble mean consolidates the energy further south near Northern Texas/OK area.
View attachment 10438

The closest model I could find to the RGEM mean was the OP GFS and the ICON (ICON is closest). See ICON below.
View attachment 10439
Click to expand...
Actually...the 558dm line is in almost the identical location on both (running through TX), and the heights out ahead of the RGEM to the east are higher. The trough is also already neutral tilt on the RGEM ensemble mean. This all actually is arguing for an even more amped and further north solution than the FV3...
 
Brick Tamland said:
That is very interesting. Makes you question if the globals are incorrect in how amped they are showing the system on their runs now.
Click to expand...

I think it lends credence to the UK/OP GFS and ICON tracks instead of the FV3/Euro. Plenty can still change but the RGEM ensembles showing a suppressed solution tells me the FV3/Euro may be consolidating the energy too far north.
 
1300m said:
Actually...the 558dm line is in almost the identical location on both (running through TX), and the heights out ahead of the RGEM to the east are higher. The trough is also already neutral tilt on the RGEM ensemble mean. This all actually is arguing for an even more amped and further north solution than the FV3...
Click to expand...

The difference is WHERE the energy consolidates. The FV3 consolidates it up in Illinois/Missouri (but is trending AWAY from this) while the RGEM ensembles are consolidating it in northern Texas/OK area. Where the energy consolidates is one of the biggest differences between the Euro/FV3 and the other models. The difference in how this unfolds is very clear when looking at the precip and MSLP maps, everything is shoved south a good bit on 16 out of 23 members.
1547062767722.png
 
snowlover91 said:
The difference is WHERE the energy consolidates. The FV3 consolidates it up in Illinois/Missouri (but is trending AWAY from this) while the RGEM ensembles are consolidating it in northern Texas/OK area. Where the energy consolidates is one of the biggest differences between the Euro/FV3 and the other models. The difference in how this unfolds is very clear when looking at the precip and MSLP maps, everything is shoved south a good bit on 16 out of 23 members.
View attachment 10442
Click to expand...
The base of the shortwave trough is in Texas on the FV3 and you can clearly see that's where the vorticity maxima are interacting.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_fh54-72.gif
 
Evolution of the NAM and RGEM inside 48-60 hours imo will be a key tipping point at least in my mind whether the amped FV3 or suppressed camp wins out here. Also curious how in-situ evolution of temps and dews are in the day or so leading into this event because that could determine cold rain or ZR for the central-western piedmont of NC in addition to the precip field which we won’t know til several hours out. Tough call and I’m torn whether to side with snowlover or 1300m here. Probably doesn’t help I’m distracted by the AMS conference and the fact I’m celebrating my birthday tonight lol
 
I think this map will be useful for showing the RGEM ensembles and the difference. Notice the SLP track heading for Louisiana. This agrees quite well with the OP GFS, UK and ICON. I'm leaning towards the suppressed camp based on all the data and trends I see.
1547062963542.png

Here's the OP GFS
1547062996060.png

CMC
1547063014579.png

GEFS & GEPS
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Here's my parting shot, last three 12z runs of the EPS. As expected, right in line with the op Euro and the FV3.

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_fh96_trend.gif
 
1300m said:
The base of the shortwave trough is in Texas on the FV3 and you can clearly see that's where the vorticity maxima are interacting.

View attachment 10443
Click to expand...

The second piece of energy up in Missouri is the one I'm talking about, not the base of the energy. There are multiple lobes of energy rotating around from Texas up into Missouri. The FV3 initially has it near Texas and then consolidates/merges the energy north into Missouri/Illinois where the other vort is. See below.
1547064056760.png

The OP GFS and UK do not do that; they shear out the energy further north hence the suppressed track.
1547064118418.png
UK
1547064162676.png

Knowing the bias for the RGEM to overamp things at this stage, the fact it is consolidating the energy to the south in northern Texas AND 16 of 23 members have the LP tracking through southern Texas is a red flag that the FV3 and Euro may be consolidating the energy too far north. It's a tough call but that's where I lean right now. I like the UK best for tough phasing/5h vort interactions like this. It's also clear from the FV3 trends posted of the SLP and 850mb vort that it has shifted south the last 3 runs as well.
 
The FV3 4 run trend is towards a washed out, weaker, sheared system. Notice the 850 low goes from a strong closed contour to very weak. Also notice heights in Canada pressing down more. IMO the FV3 is gradually shifting to the sheared out/weaker camp.
fv3p_z850_vort_us_fh90_trend.gif
 
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