• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Yep adjusted north
ecmwf_mslpa_us_5.png
 
Still could change since we are still over three days out, but looking like a cold rain with perhaps a brief mix to start is becoming the increasingly likely scenario except for those in the NC mountains and maybe the western Piedmont.
 
As I was saying earlier, the Euro has fully caved to the FV3 and now tracks the low through Tennessee. Also losing the CAD signature.

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_fh96_trend.gif

fv3p_mslpaNorm_us_18.png
 
Bsud said:
I think as far as upstate this is just about a no go for anything frozen except for maybe brief onset.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I agree the high is just a little to far north. Allowing the Low to track further north and amped up more. Meaning this is a NC event. Could be bad for some in NC


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That accumulation map is so dead wrong for MBY. Euro/Ukie kept spitting out 9-12” here and I ended up with 2” of crap salad. @Rain Cold did you get 4-6” in early December?
Click to expand...

The point was look at how far north Euro was into OH/IN. Didn’t verify. It caved the next couple of runs.

It could be right on this weekend, we will see.
 
Bsud said:
I think as far as upstate this is just about a no go for anything frozen except for maybe brief onset.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yep it's a no go for most of us again. We cant buy a decent CAD event anymore. This high pressure just isn't in the right position and timing is off on the low. Hopefully in a couple weeks we can get some blocking and one decent storm.
 
Just read through some of the Dec 8-10th thread. Forsythsnow posted a model summary, here it is below.
From what I could tell, the FV3 did great with track, but was too cold further south into GA and other regions. We can say that it is precise and somewhat accurate. I would give it a B for performance this time around.

The HRRR and WRF models were too cold and blasted the regions in GA too cold too early. However, they were fair for other regions. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'll give them both a C.

The CMC was too jumpy and definitely flunked further out but I'll give it credit as I will the GFS for not being so cold, but for NC it was way too warm. Both get a C+.

The Euro was like the WRF and HRRR, too fast on the cold for GA. It otherwise was good with the track except the few wobbles but might have been too generous to some areas. B+ here.

The ICON was way too warm. F.

Lastly, the NAM seemed to perform greatly in the 3 KM runs. The mix never made it out of the mountains in GA and it was close, but maybe a bit colder for other parts further east in NC. A-.

Just my analysis from what I could tell. Feel free to correct anything I said since I might have missed something or may not have enough info.
Click to expand...

And here was Eric's snowfall analysis.
1547060841962.png
 
Kylo said:
All 4 globals 12z. Let’s see how they do.

View attachment 10429View attachment 10430View attachment 10431View attachment 10432
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting these. I think the key is going to be how much the energy consolidates in the Midwest and also if those heights in Canada I mentioned previously press down a little faster. Models always struggle with the northern stream and complex 5h interactions like this, IF the FV3 ends up being right then it will be a huge win for the model since it has had the further north track for a long time now compared with other models. If it ends up wrong then it will cast some serious doubt on its credibility. A LP traveling through TN vs central AL/MS is one of the key differences between models. The evolution at 5H won't become clear for another 1-2 days, the 3km NAM and the RGEM will be very helpful once we get in range.
 
Fwiw the RGEM ensembles, which tend to have an amp bias at the end of their forecast period, are VERY suppressed. This is a huge red flag IMO for the amped solutions because the RGEM ensembles should be right there with the FV3/Euro but instead most members are pretty far south especially with the initial overrunning qpf.
1547061489114.png
 
Here's a look at the RGEM MSLP. Notice a majority of the members have the SLP forming around central to southern Texas. Again, a HUGE red flag here since they usually are pretty amped at this stage in the game. I use them for every winter storm and they are incredibly useful for picking up on stuff that globals later catch on to. I counted 16 that were suppresed in Central/Southern Texas area versus only 7 that are further north in agreement with the globals.
1547061679482.png
 
snowlover91 said:
Fwiw the RGEM ensembles, which tend to have an amp bias at the end of their forecast period, are VERY suppressed. This is a huge red flag IMO for the amped solutions because the RGEM ensembles should be right there with the FV3/Euro but instead most members are pretty far south especially with the initial overrunning qpf.
View attachment 10434
Click to expand...
snowlover91 said:
Here's a look at the RGEM MSLP. Notice a majority of the members have the SLP forming around central to southern Texas. Again, a HUGE red flag here since they usually are pretty amped at this stage in the game. I use them for every winter storm and they are incredibly useful for picking up on stuff that globals later catch on to. I counted 16 that were suppresed in Central/Southern Texas area versus only 7 that are further north in agreement with the globals.
View attachment 10436
Click to expand...

That is very interesting. Makes you question if the globals are incorrect in how amped they are showing the system on their runs now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top