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The June Thread 2021

That mid level cap might be a problem tomorrow, but if that’s broken (which is possible given the good Low level lapse rates/3CAPE under the mid level cap), there’s gonna be some strong, tall updrafts with lots of CTG lightning and a higher then usual microburst threat given the very high DCAPE/dry mid levels and impressive THETA-E lapse rates and low level lapse rates 3F66F520-ECB5-4EF7-9657-084F66C63FCE.png5E4587C8-95C6-4431-9AC0-5F30F5430577.png
 
Didn't even get below 80*F last night, with a low of 81*F.

And now the temps are off to the races as the sun rises. The cloud debris seems to have largely diminished again too.
 
Interestingly enough, hi-res models are trying to blow up some convection this afternoon, although they're centering on an area just to the SW of the Metroplex. But even then, the cloud debris from them could keep the afternoon temps in check.

We'll see what happens...
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
It’s all the about where they initialize now … ugh HRRR teasing me too much… someone is getting split with nothing but some cool clouds overhead … I pray it’s not me ??
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I wouldn't get too excited about a ton of coverage today. We probably get an initial blow up in the Lee/prefrontal trough then an eastward moving OFB. The initial storms will probably max out and die due to limited shear then the next set will bubble along the ofb but will pulse up and down the biggest threat is downbursts due to high D cape and the potential for updrafts rapidly collapse. Maybe late this evening as better shear and forcing approach we get a little more longevity and organization but that might end up to our SE
 
SD said:
I wouldn't get too excited about a ton of coverage today. We probably get an initial blow up in the Lee/prefrontal trough then an eastward moving OFB. The initial storms will probably max out and die due to limited shear then the next set will bubble along the ofb but will pulse up and down the biggest threat is downbursts due to high D cape and the potential for updrafts rapidly collapse. Maybe late this evening as better shear and forcing approach we get a little more longevity and organization but that might end up to our SE
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Exactly which is why I was saying so many of us will probably be split and see nothing but cool clouds … hoping for a a nice present tho .. someone gets lucky
 
SD said:
I wouldn't get too excited about a ton of coverage today. We probably get an initial blow up in the Lee/prefrontal trough then an eastward moving OFB. The initial storms will probably max out and die due to limited shear then the next set will bubble along the ofb but will pulse up and down the biggest threat is downbursts due to high D cape and the potential for updrafts rapidly collapse. Maybe late this evening as better shear and forcing approach we get a little more longevity and organization but that might end up to our SE
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So a Charlotte kind of day basically lol
 
Lickwx said:
I remember when @SD used to love those lee trough set ups . They really don’t seem to produce for us though all that often.
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Seemed like lately storms with those setups just gust out into showers/stratiform as they reach y’all, I remember setups in the past where they made it
 
Lickwx said:
I remember when @SD used to love those lee trough set ups . They really don’t seem to produce for us though all that often.
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Moving where I live now I've noticed that the sandhills/Lee trough are much more prominent for our area in July and August than June.

I have a feeling it's related to sfc heating and the likelihood of a more classic bermuda ridge sfc pattern
 
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