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The June Thread 2021

NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah I wouldn’t look at it through the eyes of just one model run .. even gfs has it still crossing our area but it’s precip output is a little less this run .. that’s okay though remember tropical systems are like winter storms around here the models will go back and forth but if u look at the consensus of alllll the models you can clearly see most of the SE is awaiting a good soaking … at the very least it’ll kick off good storms each day it’s around .. euro was a beaut as well
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It does appear to leave behind an MCS pattern afterward. We might be on the edge!
 
The drier scenario isn't impossible BTW. Too much troughing over the weekend in the NE and the trough over the plains being too fast would likely lead to more westerly flow across the region and pin most of the heavier rain along and south of I20. BUT that scenario would likely place a 850-700mb convergent axis across the region which may be enough to fire up scattered storms. So right now even in the drier scenario it likely wouldn't be a widespread 0 like the GFS and CMC show
 
Looking at the gfs member mslp you can see there are 2 camps one to south like the operational cmc and gfs and a second to the north more similar to the Euro but weaker
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_23.png
When you look at the Euro suites precip distribution you see that the operational is in the top few % of qpf meaning its likely too far north or strong inland
Screenshot_20210615-081841_Chrome.jpg

so long story short I wouldn't buy the ultra strong 996 buzzsaw from the Euro right now or the fairly dry Op GFS/CMC
 
mydoortotheworld said:
I thought that was due to Chatt simply being only so slightly more interior portion of the US compared to ATL, so it's more subject to more temp extremes
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I've seen areas in the Carolinas hotter than Atlanta that are a lot closer to the coast so not sure if maritime influences(or lack thereof) are the reason here.


Anyways, tons of troughing in the east on the GFS over the next two weeks. Should keep temperatures in check. Really hopes this remains the pattern for most of the summer. Have to wonder though if the drought is helping to reinforce ridging in the west over the long term(not particularly good for that area when it comes to rain chances) and amplifying troughs over the east.
 
Ele
LovingGulfLows said:
I've seen areas in the Carolinas hotter than Atlanta that are a lot closer to the coast so not sure if maritime influences(or lack thereof) are the reason here.


Anyways, tons of troughing in the east on the GFS over the next two weeks. Should keep temperatures in check. Really hopes this remains the pattern for most of the summer. Have to wonder though if the drought is helping to reinforce ridging in the west over the long term(not particularly good for that area when it comes to rain chances) and amplifying troughs over the east.
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Elevation, Atlanta is at 1000 feet above sea level . Baltimore has a similar if not hotter average July max than ATL .
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Isn't it a little early for this type of heat ? Seems like July and August are the hottest months in Dallas.
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Yeah I was shocked I tell you shocked that it was 93 in Indianapolis the other day. It’s not even summer I tell you, if this had happened on or after the solstice it would be normal . Everyone knows that at the 39th parallel where Indianapolis is located that temps from the spring equinox to the summer solstice stay exactly at 68/45 every single day because it’s spring. Jesus .
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Isn't it a little early for this type of heat ? Seems like July and August are the hottest months in Dallas.
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It is.

We're kind of in a feeedback loop temp-wise though between the NW Flow, the soil drying out and compressional heating with the squeeze play between the tropical system and the northern trough.

The warm temps themselves are also advecting in from the drought-stricken SW (where the drought continues to worsen).

EDIT: All of that said, DFW is still below average for June to-date. That should change by tomorrow or Thursday though.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Isn't Chattanooga in a valley? Hot air builds and gets trapped within the valley causing hotter temperatures possibly. Atlanta is also higher elevation.
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All of this. If the Atlanta airport were north of the city it would be even more apparent. Though the same could be said for Chattanooga if their reporting station was on Signal or Lookout Mountains.

1623771441767.png
 
Not to count my chickens before they hatch but widespread 2-4" is looking more and more likely this weekend from the potential tropical system.
 
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