• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern The Great December Dump

Looks like this December is going to be roughly par for the course (as expected) for a December in the 2010s. Hard to believe 2C above average in December is the "new normal" in the last decade or so.

This map below takes us thru Dec 17th.

ANOM2m_fcstMTH_ntham (2).png
 
Our positive (+) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has waned significantly, and thus I expect the Indian Ocean standing wave to progressively lose its strangehold on the global tropics going forward. This means we should starting encountering patterns in January & February that are more receptive to cold/snow & -NAOs as the secondary area of anomalous uplift in the West Pacific becomes relatively more influential.
ELZ1vBVWsAAYg8s.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Looks like this December is going to be roughly par for the course (as expected) for a December in the 2010s. Hard to believe 2C above average in December is the "new normal" in the last decade or so.

This map below takes us thru Dec 17th.

View attachment 27663
Click to expand...
Webb, you think the properly placed cyclonic wave could bring us a -NAO in time for Christmas? I've notice gfs/gefs has been showing a nice cold blast that week.
 
accu35 said:
Webb, you think the properly placed cyclone wave could bring us a -NAO in time for Christmas? I've notice gfs/gefs has been showing a nice cold blast that week.
Click to expand...

Yes, I think there will be at least a brief period of -NAO next week following this cyclonic wave breaker over Atlantic Canada, its persistence is highly dependent on continued synoptic-scale wave breaking in the North Atlantic storm track that isn't predictable more than a week or so in advance. In a general sense, As stated in an earlier comment, I certainly think we're moving in a direction that's going to be more favorable to -NAO later in the winter (Jan-Feb) as we lose the +IOD.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yes, I think there will be at least a brief period of -NAO next week following this cyclonic wave breaker over Atlantic Canada, its persistence is highly dependent on continued synoptic-scale wave breaking in the North Atlantic storm track that isn't predictable more than a week or so in advance. In a general sense, As stated in an earlier comment, I certainly think we're moving in a direction that's going to be more favorable to -NAO later in the winter (Jan-Feb) as we lose the +IOD.
Click to expand...
So +IOD is Indian Ocean Dipole? Also known as Indian Nino
 
Not our storm but a pretty good sized event showing up on the EURO north of us the past few runs. Couldn't hurt for helping get some cold further south.
us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019121000_180_493_155.png
 
Thor said:
Not our storm but a pretty good sized event showing up on the EURO north of us the past few runs. Couldn't hurt for helping get some cold further south.
View attachment 27668
Click to expand...

things have been improving on the euro, 50/50 low has been trending south and far stronger, big cold vortex has trended south in north Canada, western ridge is getting taller, get more confluence with a slightly stronger high and we’re in business, also like how that energy has dug more and more 2E0E52EC-A163-43B5-BC8B-4F24C75865C3.gif
 
Thor said:
Not our storm but a pretty good sized event showing up on the EURO north of us the past few runs. Couldn't hurt for helping get some cold further south.
View attachment 27668
Click to expand...
The EPS actually had a huge increase with this system. Nice look for CAD areas. Though I think member 45 skewed the mean a bit.
1576800000-2927I1BM9sw.png
1576800000-3eFpZFAVkz4.png
1575936000-01VxaynBYto.png
1576800000-2O60r3PFScw.png
1576800000-ajck3ETrlZA.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
things have been improving on the euro, 50/50 low has been trending south and far stronger, big cold vortex has trended south in north Canada, western ridge is getting taller, get more confluence with a slightly stronger high and we’re in business, also like how that energy has dug more and more View attachment 27669
Click to expand...

That trough over Atlantic Canada is in the ideal spot if u want a CAD event here and is a good way to lock in the CAD high. The problem this time is the cold push & corresponding parent surface high appear to be weaker than what we're seeing this week and I'm not sure if the s/w over the midwest will dig far enough south. The operational Euro looked better than its ensemble suite.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8 (2).png
 
KyloG said:
One good news is PNA ridge keeps fighting. Hoping as we get into January it’s an easier fight.

View attachment 27677
Click to expand...

And a nice 50/50 low in a nice spot, with ridging at the pole. Hint of -NAO showing up. Just need the trend to continue and I think that's workable. Especially come January if that hangs tight.
 
KyloG said:
One good news is PNA ridge keeps fighting. Hoping as we get into January it’s an easier fight.

View attachment 27677
Click to expand...

That Aleutian low will not budge which is great for us going into mid-late December.

Another trend to like, the 17th storm was a big cutter a day ago. I like the trend of more suppression this winter so far.
 
Thor said:
Not our storm but a pretty good sized event showing up on the EURO north of us the past few runs. Couldn't hurt for helping get some cold further south.
View attachment 27668
Click to expand...
Myfrotho704_ said:
things have been improving on the euro, 50/50 low has been trending south and far stronger, big cold vortex has trended south in north Canada, western ridge is getting taller, get more confluence with a slightly stronger high and we’re in business, also like how that energy has dug more and more View attachment 27669
Click to expand...
Arcc said:
I’m liking the 17th threat for you guys in the Carolinas. That Euro trend is great.
Click to expand...

Baby steps. We're headed in the right direction. Things are looking more positive than not for some winter storms to come this way soon. Just have to be patient and let things run its course and set things up for it to happen.
 
It is the GFS. So, take with a grain, of course. Around 12/19-20, 12Z is some 35-40F colder in the Midwest down to N TX vs just 2 runs ago!! Insane change!

Edit: major winter storm @Brent in TX e to AL 12/20-1 and moving east.
 
Last edited:
Brick Tamland said:
Baby steps. We're headed in the right direction. Things are looking more positive than not for some winter storms to come this way soon. Just have to be patient and let things run its course and set things up for it to happen.
Click to expand...

Like I said, baby steps.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png
 
What a massive flip, even at fantasy land, I really hope this is the start to the model adjusting back to a great pattern the next couple of weeks.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS is 40 F colder in parts of the SE US on the afternoon of 12/21 vs prior runs!! Major NC/SC/N and C GA ZR 12/21-2! Major IP and SN in much of W and N NC and major IP N SC!
Click to expand...

Speak of the devil...on the day I bring up 2/12/14, that wacky fantasy land storm puts several under hours of ice...

Now that certainly would be a storm for several states though, for real.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, it's what the model is showing now. If there is potential, then it should be okay to show and discuss here.
Click to expand...
Can you post the 500 mb NHem height map at that time? Would be helpful to see what the pattern supports.
 
It really all depends on the tablesetter first Storm on the 17th. Need to be tracking that one now to see how it progresses for points northgfs_mslpa_nhem_48.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top