NoSnowATL
Member
Question, last year would have been cold if we didn’t lose to the SER correct? And looks like we will be rolling the dice again? Trying to make sure I’m reading you and Webb right.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Question, last year would have been cold if we didn’t lose to the SER correct? And looks like we will be rolling the dice again? Trying to make sure I’m reading you and Webb right.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
What do years like 2014 & 15 do differently than last year & 2018 that also +TNHs but were warmer?
The colder +TNH years in the SE US both recently & since the beginning of the satellite era have more persistent & stronger convective forcing just west of the International Dateline ~160 degrees east. Basically this tropical forcing pattern w/ enhanced convection just west of the dateline that's creating the +TNH/-EPO to begin with is more intense in years where we are colder in the SE US. The raw OLR anomalies & difference composite basically resembles modoki/central Pacific El Nino just shifted slightly westward.
So, how is this year performing thus far?
We have more persistent & intense convection just west of the dateline like in the colder composite. This is very encouraging to see.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We also have had more convection just west of the dateline than even 2014 & 15 up to this point in the season, another really positive sign going forward.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It would also make sense that extra convection just west of the dateline would be favorable for more cold down here in the SE US, this extra convective forcing will supply the subtropical/southern branch of the jet with excess westerly momentum & moisture, encouraging more frequent breakdown of the SE US ridge & of course winter storms in the southern US.
Wouldn’t sleep on the 21/22 system yet ... gefs still has a good few with a more robust system tracking more northwest ... seems too odd everyone agrees on a really southern location still this far out... would think we see a shift more north in the coming days
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes, the solstice storm has still yet to disappear from the GEFS. A last second NW adjustment & earlier precip onset could result in snow/ice in the NW & far western piedmont of NC + the mountains.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh boy. A legit -EPO/-NAO coupled w/ an active subtropical jet to start a new year & decade.
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accu35
Member
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I love your off days of work, lol.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're also probably gonna be staring down the barrel of RMM MJO phase 7 in early January which is notorious for producing winter storms in NC.
I'm very curious to see where we stand in a week or so.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I know there is more to this....BUT look how much Difference there is in this vs last December (and winter) What a nice change to see that its not deep into phases 3, 4, 5 and 6.
I know right! If it was going to be cold enough, it would have been a lot of snow.
Good grief, always the LR..
Of course it always is the long range, but watch for consistency with future runs!
I now think that there won't be much in the way of frozen precip with that 21st/22nd system. There could be a brief window for frozen precip mostly over western NC. The cold air is lacking and a ridge messes everything up. If that ridge wasn't in the way, colder air may have been at play.
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, the pacific down the line starts to look much better. But verbatim, doesn't look very cold in the SE. Perhaps if the ridge were taller or we got a 50/50 low would help. Hopefully in a few weeks time we can start to get the arctic into the SE. Right now this still reminds me alot of last year (cold stuck in the west/midwest). But you guys are all over the tropical intricacies of how this year is different so I'll go with that. But until it's in mid range modeling, I weenie worry.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, the pacific down the line starts to look much better. But verbatim, doesn't look very cold. Perhaps if the ridge were taller or we got a 50/50 low would help. Hopefully in a weeks time we can start to get the arctic into the SE. Right now this still reminds me alot of last year (cold stuck in the west/midwest). But you guys are all over the tropical intricacies of how this year is different so I'll go with that. But until it's in mid range modeling, I weenie worry.
As I noted in an earlier post, there may be some resistance from the SE ridge at first at the tail end of Dec or so, however I do eventually think we'll turn cold & perhaps very cold at that. Prior experience and the composite pattern in cases like this both suggest that long range NWP models are probably dampening the wave pattern over North America too much & I'd expect the big vortex over northern Canada to slide closer to the lower 48 as we approach verification in this case.
Difference vs last year was a terrible MJO, no blocking/low heights around Greenland/+NAO, we basically have had to rely on a pattern that has a -EPO along with a active STJ and some sort of 50/50 low or SE Canada vortex these past years for our winter storms which have been close because with those setups it’s all bout timing, it’s nice to see some blocking with a -EPO, Pacific and Atlantic cooperating for once
But man that look last year was ugly, GOA ridge with a western US trough and a ridge in the SE, that was ugly
But man that look last year was ugly, GOA ridge with a western US trough and a ridge in the SE, that was ugly
Maybe we get some resistance from the SER but honestly the past few months we’ve seen how the SER has lasted .. it’s barely been able to have staying power and if it hits it’s not that hot at all .. more like a seasonable ridge at best ... don’t think we’re going to see a huge problem with the SER this winter .. we just gotta hit timing
I think its happening man. I could fall flat on my face but is really difficult to not go all in on January
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Glad we’re back up and running. Papa’s got
A brand new bag!
A brand new bag!
Also, this weekends system I noticed that the euro is still cooling 850's every run. I compared to yesterdays 12z run and they were cooler this run over parts of the SE. I still think it could be a dud, BUT we shall see.