18z gefs I better tell the wife is loaning season
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
BHS1975
Member
18z gefs I better tell the wife is loaning season
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Dibs
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Other than just being weird, isn't the wife loaner business better suited for the whamby thread? Asking for a friend....
NCCWOP9077
Member
Has that cross-polar flow vibe to it, I maybe looking at it wrong.
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Looks good to me. I will take it in a heartbeat.
Exactly. I was concerned we would be at 60+ on Christmas. It's really the one day a year where I want it cool to cold
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campamy
Member
4 degrees AN so far this month, but I have to admit, it's *seemed chilly. I guess warm nights and cloudy overall has been the general rule. We even had a snow falling from the sky event here in lowlands Swampy Chattanooga. Not Dec 2010 by a country mile though. I bet we see single digits in January though at some point. Who knows about snow, that stuff happens as if by miracle here in these latitudes. A latitude winter, that's what I'm seeing as the theme so far.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The solstice system still hasn't disappeared on the GEFS in NC & we're getting inside day 5 now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Most have practically left this storm for dead but I don't think it is just quite yet.
I’m seeing that snowfall mean jump at 102hr but then I check the GEFS 850’s at 102..how does that work?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's because this is an ensemble mean which at that particular time step does not support +SN as a whole (the members that are warm really are that much warmer), yet many individual members especially those with faster precip onset, are marginally cold enough near/west of I-85 in NC. Most do change precip over to RN but there's certainly a decent subset that start as wet snow or RN/SN mix in areas like GSO, CLT, & even GSP
gawxnative
Member
Well "jumping ahead" but GFS showing supercold here out in VooDoo land..Highs mid 20's lows near 10... wait and see as it is 384 GFS...lol
packfan98
Moderator
6z gfs suggesting that some may squeeze out some snow before 2020. Another good tracking Miller A on New Years Eve with colder air closing in...At the very least, promising a better pattern to follow.
tennessee storm
Member
Hard to put lot trust gfs model that far away. We see...
Here we go, tropospheric PV lobe trending South 
MichaelJ
Member
I am cautiously optimistic we may head into a very good pattern the 1st week of January mainly because of the trends for the models to start warm and then get colder as time goes by. I would not look at the temps too closely that far out verbatim because the general pattern is what will drive those and the GEFS is notorious for being too cold and the EURO too warm. If we can get a block up in Greenland and a stout high pressure in westen Canada, we may have some stuff to tracks by then if the split flow continues
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS long range -EPO bias is rearing its ugly head in its later, more recent week 2 forecasts.
