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Pattern The Great December Dump

18z gefs I better tell the wife is loaning season
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SD said:
Christmas wedge
O Christmas wedge
How excited am I to see the

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Crazy thing is, with the temps the rest of this week and thanks to that wedge, I might actually pull off a normal or even a tad BN December
 
SD said:
Exactly. I was concerned we would be at 60+ on Christmas. It's really the one day a year where I want it cool to cold

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And cloudy. And if it doesn't snow, rain is okay. Makes the Christmas lights shine brighter.
 
4 degrees AN so far this month, but I have to admit, it's *seemed chilly. I guess warm nights and cloudy overall has been the general rule. We even had a snow falling from the sky event here in lowlands Swampy Chattanooga. Not Dec 2010 by a country mile though. I bet we see single digits in January though at some point. Who knows about snow, that stuff happens as if by miracle here in these latitudes. A latitude winter, that's what I'm seeing as the theme so far.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m seeing that snowfall mean jump at 102hr but then I check the GEFS 850’s at 102..how does that work?View attachment 28449
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That's because this is an ensemble mean which at that particular time step does not support +SN as a whole (the members that are warm really are that much warmer), yet many individual members especially those with faster precip onset, are marginally cold enough near/west of I-85 in NC. Most do change precip over to RN but there's certainly a decent subset that start as wet snow or RN/SN mix in areas like GSO, CLT, & even GSP
 
I am cautiously optimistic we may head into a very good pattern the 1st week of January mainly because of the trends for the models to start warm and then get colder as time goes by. I would not look at the temps too closely that far out verbatim because the general pattern is what will drive those and the GEFS is notorious for being too cold and the EURO too warm. If we can get a block up in Greenland and a stout high pressure in westen Canada, we may have some stuff to tracks by then if the split flow continues
 
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