yeah its likely setting up a good pattern to quick as well, havent seen the EPS yet, it probably looks worse than the GEFS
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
It's way out there but a couple of EPS members biting as well, GSO chart below but no need to post others because it is so minimal at this time.... just looks like there is a storm signal as of now
When you posted this I went back and looked...I see what you mean. Of course I am cherry picking known snowy periods and it looks like it could be 6-8 in Jan/Feb.
I wouldn’t be so afraid of what the Gfs is showing in the long range as that is what we’ve been talking about for weeks now about how large scale features like the mjo are heading into favorable patterns by the end of December and early January ... all signs have pointed to winter getting started for us for this time period and now the models are just now being able to see it .. obviously the details will change but clearly the pattern isn’t leading to a major south east ridge .. we’re heading for cold and snowy (oh please lord let it be snowy)
Based on current forecasts I’ve seen, most of the SE US would end up with December being 3-5 warmer than normal and even most of NC would end up 2-3 warmer than normal thanks to a much warmer than normal last 10 days of the month being forecasted. Whereas this wouldn’t get December as a whole to torch levels like some in the recent past, it would get it to solidly above and the 9th warmer than normal Dec in a row for the bulk of the SE US should these forecasts verify.
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I wonder if the streak of 9 AN Decembers is the longest current streak of any month ? Also I wonder if any month has ever had such a long streak since records have been kept. Whats the most consecutive AN months that any month has ever recorded ?
I don’t know 100% for sure off the top of my head, but I’m pretty confident this would be the longest AN streak in the SE for any nonsummer month. To get 9 AN in a row to the extent experienced purely randomly would be something like a one in several thousands chance. But of course we know that GW is the main reason and that therefore this isn’t a purely random occurrence. Another way to look at it is that the 1981-2010 normals are way outdated now with true normals significantly warmer.
But why December ? Why has December been more consistently warm than any other month ? Why not January ? Or November ?
Not sure we know this with absolute certainty.... but I don't want to debate it or discuss it in the main thread. Thanks
Coldest night of the year so far tonight or tomorrow night at the house I think
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's what the actual data shows when you look at every winter storm in east-central NC since 1974 in Dec-Mar sorted by RMM phase when its amplitude is >1.
Phase 7 & 8 are favored in general, phases 2-3 are slightly more conducive than the Maritime Continent while few winter storms occur in RMM phase 1.
However, the major takeaway which reaffirms what I've been saying is that RMM MJO phase 7 in January leads the way by a country mile, nearly doubling the frequency of winter storms in any other month & phase and accounting for over 10% of the total number of winter storms in this time span!
I highlighted in yellow the peak total RMM MJO phase & peak phase by month.
Again, January MJO phase 7 sticks out like a sore thumb.
Thanks! It is difficult now to not atleast be mildly optimistic.
From my 12/18/18 post here regarding major KATL winter storms:
MJO phase/amp for KATL major winter storms since MJO data available: (in = inside circle; out = outside circle)
1. ZR:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 12/14-15/2005: 2-1 in
- 1/28-9/2005: 5 in
- 1/28-30/2000: 1-2 in
- 1/22-3/2000: 7-8 in
- 2/6-7/1979: 2 in
So all 6 major ZRs inside circle with phases 2 and 5 the most common
2. IP:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 1/7/1988: 8 in
- 2/17-18/1979: 3 out/in
So, 2.5 of 3 major IP inside circle but very small sample
3. SN:
- 1/9-10/2011: 6-5 out
- 2/12/2010: 8 out
- 3/1/09: 4 out
- 1/2-3/2002: 7 out
- 3/13/1993: 4 out
- 1/18/1992: 8 out
- 1/22/1987: 3 out
- 3/24/1983: 8 in
- 1/12-14/1982: 4 in
So, 7 of 9 major SN outside circle with phases 4 and 8 the most common
MJO phase/amp for KATL major winter storms since MJO data available: (in = inside circle; out = outside circle)
1. ZR:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 12/14-15/2005: 2-1 in
- 1/28-9/2005: 5 in
- 1/28-30/2000: 1-2 in
- 1/22-3/2000: 7-8 in
- 2/6-7/1979: 2 in
So all 6 major ZRs inside circle with phases 2 and 5 the most common
2. IP:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 1/7/1988: 8 in
- 2/17-18/1979: 3 out/in
So, 2.5 of 3 major IP inside circle but very small sample
3. SN:
- 1/9-10/2011: 6-5 out
- 2/12/2010: 8 out
- 3/1/09: 4 out
- 1/2-3/2002: 7 out
- 3/13/1993: 4 out
- 1/18/1992: 8 out
- 1/22/1987: 3 out
- 3/24/1983: 8 in
- 1/12-14/1982: 4 in
So, 7 of 9 major SN outside circle with phases 4 and 8 the most common
Interesting. Thought 4 was mostly a shutout.
Anyone else having problems with the tropical tidbits site when viewing models.. I can’t seem to see the exact frames anymore it’s just the scroll bar and i dont know if It’s only happening to me or if they changed something?
Am I looking at this correct? There have been 142 winter storms in east-central NC since 1974? That's a little over 3 a year on average.... that seems high to me but I guess this is every little nuisance event as well. Also, again if I'm reading correctly, any way of knowing how many of those years the MJO was in P7 during January?
If your on mobile site that's all you are going to see now apparently, I noticed this yesterday, but on a PC you can still see them
I just wish they would move the “regions” button.
Even more delays/evidence of -EPA/+PNA bias on the 12Z GEFS...will it ever end lol? I liken it to a mirage. They almost always look good but not til late. Actually, the 12Z GEFS has the SE warmer than normal lasting all the way to the end of the run on 1/3 even while the upper Midwest westward is colder than normal and the cold is getting closer. Even more delays would not be a surprise obviously.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the criteria I defined for a winter storm was pretty loose but it included storms I mapped, or ones that were identified by NWS RAH, NCSU Climate Office or were cases where at least one of the following reliable, long-term stations recorded at least 1" of snow: Greensboro, Charlotte, Raleigh, or Wilmington to raise the sample size of events. Quite a few winter storms actually didn't make the cut at all, so these are only the storms that occurred when the MJO had amplitude.
When you look at Januarys where the MJO was in phase 7 for at least 3 successive days (1975, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1992, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, & 2016)
east-central NC picked up a winter storm a whopping 60% of the time!
Since 1985, the frequency has increased and we've picked up a winter storm nearly 80% of the time (10 of the last 13 cases) when the MJO was in phase 7 in January!!
So, now you can see why I'm so upbeat about our chances in the longer term when I see us potentially staring down the barrel of a phase 7 MJO event in early or perhaps mid-January.
A 3 out 4 hit rate is certainly not bad. If we get a phase 7 MJO event next month given the kind of pattern we may be looking at (-EPO/+TNH) I'd be tempted to push all my chips to the center of the table.