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Pattern The Great December Dump

The energy seems much weaker this run. While a bit, south at the same latitude.
Edit: Probably not going to be another NS piece this run
 
Good gracious at the Euro along the gulf coast. Hours and hours of rain. To bad this isn't cold enough
 
accu35 said:
Good gracious at the Euro along the gulf coast. Hours and hours of rain. To bad this isn't cold enough
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Like the GFS, this Euro run is simply way too slow with our shortwave, we need it to be about a day faster to have a chance to cash in. By the time overrunning precipitation attempts to reinforce the CAD dome, it's too little too late. Again, contrary to popular misconception here, it's not that we don't have the cold here first, it's the opposite problem in that the cold air is leaving before we start getting any appreciable moisture involved.

Our wave needs to emerge from the southern Rockies by about the time this vortex east of New England gets to the longitude of Newfoundland, it's too slow in this case. Northern stream interaction, a weaker wave, and a slower Atlantic Canada trough are ways to improve the timing.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_4.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Like the GFS, this Euro run is simply way too slow with our shortwave, we need it to be about a day faster to have a chance to cash in. By the time overrunning precipitation attempts to reinforce the CAD dome, it's too little too late. Again, contrary to popular misconception here, it's not that we don't have the cold here first, it's the opposite problem in that the cold air is leaving before we start getting any appreciable moisture involved.

Our wave needs to emerge from the southern Rockies by about the time this vortex east of New England gets to the longitude of Newfoundland, it's too slow in this case. Northern stream interaction, a weaker wave, and a slower Atlantic Canada trough are ways to improve the timing.

View attachment 28358
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Not having the cold in place first is equivalent to the cold hauling out too soon or the storm coming in too late or whatever you want to call it. We have cold in place many times throughout the winter. It's just gone most of the time before the precipitation moves in.

I can't speak for others, but what I mean by having cold first is that I'd like to see a cold pattern established...not a marginal, uber-transient cold shot that is in and out. I mean, a legitimate eastern US cold pattern. And then deal with precipitation. Some want to see the opposite--make it wet and then hopefully time a cold shot. I'm not sure which way is statistically better, but I'll take my chances with the cold pattern.

Most of our events do require good timing, I'll grant that. It seems like it's been so long since we've paired a good cold pattern with an active southern stream. Maybe the -NAO unicorn will help with that this year, finally.

Anyway, I agree that 384 maps shouldn't be taken seriously, but they're fun to look at. Most people probably know they are unlikely to verify...at least I hope.
 
Since some people still can't access the site it's a perfect time to say that I think the first 7 to 10 days of Jan we fight a little SE ridge, then for the rest of January it's on like donkey Kong before we fight the SE again in Feb

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
The few EPS members that have any wintry precipitation in the Carolinas this weekend have a faster arrival of precip & confine it near/west of I-85 (GSO-CLT) and to the mtns. We'll need to see this upper low come a bit further north/faster to have any chance here but it looks like there may be enough cold air to work w/ in at least the mountains & NW piedmont of NC for wintry weather if we can get the timing right.

The 50-50 low is still trending southward & dragging its feet in subsequent EPS runs which is keeping our CAD high around longer in recent suites. Regardless of snow/ice, it certainly will be chilly this weekend.

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_fh120_trend.gif
 
The agreement between the European & CFS weeklies on the return of the -EPO/+TNH in early January is actually quite remarkable. It's amazing what happens when the +IOD finally calms down & the tropical West Pac has a chance to re-establish itself. The coldest air in the NH will be getting transported towards our side of the pond to start the month, there may be some SE ridge resistance at first.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png

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Webberweather53 said:
The agreement between the European & CFS weeklies on the return of the -EPO/+TNH in early January is actually quite remarkable. It's amazing what happens when the +IOD finally calms down & the tropical West Pac has a chance to re-establish itself. The coldest air in the NH will be getting transported towards our side of the pond to start the month, there may be some SE ridge resistance at first.

View attachment 28367

View attachment 28368
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The West Pac's fingerprints are empirically evident in producing this pattern.

Compare Jan-Feb 2013-19's OLR anomalies to the CFSv2 forecast.


olr.cfs.all.pacific.7.png


llX_dGILjC.png


The resulting 500mb pattern as you all know looks something like this:

I'd anticipate the 500mb pattern to grow more amplified on the models as verification approaches w/ the Alaskan ridge gaining latitude while the tropospheric polar vortex lobe over northern Canada slides southward in later outlooks.


__EI8lzHVW.png
 
I can only access the site through my telephone. I am still getting an error message through Google chrome and internet explorer.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The West Pac's fingerprints are empirically evident in producing this pattern.

Compare Jan-Feb 2013-19's OLR anomalies to the CFSv2 forecast.


View attachment 28370


View attachment 28371


The resulting 500mb pattern as you all know looks something like this:

I'd anticipate the 500mb pattern to grow more amplified on the models as verification approaches w/ the Alaskan ridge gaining latitude while the tropospheric polar vortex lobe over northern Canada slides southward in later outlooks.


View attachment 28372
Click to expand...

Here's the resulting temperature pattern.

We're probably gonna have to fight the SE US ridge, but this pattern by seeding the continent w/ Siberian air & trapping the tropospheric polar vortex over Canada, has the potential to give us the coldest air masses we can handle when the SE US ridge does occasionally break down. Coupled with the active subtropical jet we have this winter, I'm fairly upbeat about our chances for snow & ice going forward in January & February

cd69.217.128.238.350.9.19.26.prcp.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's the resulting temperature pattern.

We're probably gonna have to fight the SE US ridge, but this pattern by seeding the continent w/ Siberian air & trapping the tropospheric polar vortex over Canada, has the potential to give us the coldest air masses we can handle when the SE US ridge does occasionally break down. Coupled with the active subtropical jet we have this winter, I'm fairly upbeat about our chances for snow & ice going forward in January & February

View attachment 28373
Click to expand...

What do you think is going to differentiate last years -EPO/+TNH torch fest versus 14/15 colder option? We hoping for some form of Npac low and scandi. ridge


xmMmC4FSEF.png



XI_HP9pGgs.png
 
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