Read my mind I was about to post that. Sure would like to see the euro with something similar before getting excited
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yeah, surface temps would be slightly above freezing for most areas getting snow. As depicted, it would be huge flakes that did more melting than sticking. I still wouldn't complain. One thing to look at is if our initial cold air can stay locked in and stay cold/dry. Some dew points the day before are in the teens and that's the one positive I can see at this point (..dealing with surface temps).
Jessy89
Member
If we can just trend a little colder. Might sneak out a north of 85 event for NE Ga/Upstate SC. I doubt it happens but it only take a few degrees.
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Yeah that little closed low had nice backside CAA with 850s below 0C which really helped us out once moisture blossomed here
The 18z ICON does have some snow mixing into parts of NC.
Starting to get a feeling some places with this event may see some first wet snowflakes mix in the rain, nothing significant at all (unless you go to the mountains), some gefs members show this with some initial light R/S mix and the ICON/GFS/CMC support this
I'd like to see the euro/eps get on board with anything out this way. That being said gotta like the gfs with the strong upper wave and weak 850 low passing through SC. In a perfect scenario we could get a heavy enough initial push of precip to wet bulb what's left of the air mass and generate a decent area of snow
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Tied to that stronger/better trough near Canada/ 50/50 getting better
Man I hope this shiznit is wrong.
RollTide18
Member
Yeah the GFS looks like dog crap in the LR
NoSnowATL
Member
It will be, I think I saw it was avg around 10% 7-14 days out.
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Well, if we get the fantasy storm it showed at D6-7 I wouldn’t complain, LOL.
Interesting setup, I guess we’ll see what happens. I haven’t paid this system much attention yet, but maybe I should. Maybe we have a five percent chance of it working out?
I’m actually going to be in Greensboro this weekend for Christmas.
Yeah I still think the 6 day deal is a low low low prob thing. But you can never say never, I guess. Love the avatar!
packfan98
Moderator
James is bringing the old time mojo! I always remember reading your observations from High Point trying to dig out what was coming next for me. Good times!
Yes!
I guess to clarify I will be in northern High Point this weekend near the airport, just like old times. So maybe we can do that again, haha.
Well if u took about 2 minutes and looked at the post a couple posts above yours you will see the deterministic model (the one everyone seems to think has 100% accuracy after day 1 when in reality it’s crap) has a largely positive EPO while it’s ensembles has large scale support for a robust negative EPO in the same medium and long range ... the Gfs I believe will change drastically once it gets a grip of the situation
until then don’t get caught up in every single deterministic run ??
I’ve seen worse..seasonal ain’t so bad.. the bad thing is, and this might make the weenies mad, the GFS at 384hr is wrong and it will probably verify much worse..but maybe not..but probably
