Based of the gefs, that storm we’re watching has the chance to become intense, especially if a phase occurs
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Woah, gefs mean H5 pattern even shows this phase, if we can get enough cold, and if this blows up off the coast, someone on the east coast could get a blizzard from this thing, has that big dog look with that phasing
That's a late bloomer that has my name all over it
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That's a late bloomer that has my name all over it
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
yeah, has RC/SD/metwannabe special written all over it with that late phase
BHS1975
Member
trend on the GEFS has been for it to dig it more S with lower heights, more phasing, stronger blocking, and starting to see a trend to better high pressure to our north, just wanna see the eps really get this look 
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It never happened
Man, sayonara drought!
SnowNiner
Member
This drought buster brought to by the letter....Miller A
Nice to see we have an A today, and perhaps another one modeled at the end of next week although it probably won't be cold enough for snow either. Just keep the Miller A train going and eventually we'll cash in. December has transitioned nicely to a pattern that we can work with in January and February if it remains persistent IMO.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Wow, GFS really blew up overnight. 10 days away, but there is a definite storm signal there for that time. The way the pattern is progressing looks great for potential.
Boooom mofo’s
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
It’s funny to note (re: the distant GFS storm) that all the other models (from what I can tell) are extremely suppressed compared to the GFS. You’d almost expect the opposite.
I love the way the American modeling is handing this storm, but the Euro has absolutely nothing, so we’re at a crossroad. Though I think the pattern could come back on the Euro.
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SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, and it worries me that even though the GFS is getting hits and has a pretty great overall set up, the GEFS is not really picking it up. That's concerning to me. You'd think if it was a real threat you'd get some good pings on the ensemble members. I'd say if the signal doesn't increase by Monday it's just not cooking for one reason or another.
It's all about timing. We have a pronounced split stream this year. People forget to take that into account when evaluating long range model output. It's bad in the D10 period in general, but throw in a pronounced split flow with waves moving through every couple of days and you will take bad D10 performance and turn it into horrific D10 performance. Our best bet is to look at the big picture pattern present on the models and see if there is agreement that a winter storm is possible. In this case, it is. But the nature of the pattern means that timing has to be nearly perfect. The window isn't very wide.
We've had exactly 3 out of the last 10 GFS runs show a winter storm (outside of some slop in the foothills before the changeover).
Last night's 0z run. You got a high just north of the Lakes. No 50/50, but enough energy in the N/S to phase in with the southern stream and allow for juuuuust enough cold air to support snow.
The Euro has no phasing...the southern stream system moves in later. Here's the 240 map, as I don't have the 228 one.
And the CMC at 228:
Here's the 0z GFS from 12/12. Much better interaction with the N/S. It phases and pulls down the needed cold:
That one is really nice. I don't anticipate a super cold and suppressed pattern. The southern wave needs to phase with a northern wave. Blocking may help with this. But right now, the flow is way too complicated for the models to remotely predict. Phasing is going to be needed. The good thing is, it's possible. The tough things are, A: it's not probable and B: we won't know for a good while yet.
NoSnowATL
Member
This is a classic track. IF we want a storm we will get one from this setup this winter.
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Isn't that really just because of a few members skewing the mean? The mean at KHSV is down. In any case, if the GEFS isn't even the same model as the GFS (as in GEFS hasn't been updated yet), then I am not sure that there is significant value in looking for agreement between the GFS Op and the GEFS.