Yes, but in all fairness they’re back to showing December niño like they were last weekend. Late but not deniedRemember when just a few cycles ago things were looking better for cold? Boy, those were the days, huh?
Yes, but in all fairness they’re back to showing December niño like they were last weekend. Late but not deniedRemember when just a few cycles ago things were looking better for cold? Boy, those were the days, huh?
And now the GFS may be setting up for a big winter storm for 12/28...Remember when just a few cycles ago things were looking better for cold? Boy, those were the days, huh?
Probably going to be right here.
Without the Pacific all the NAO will do is block up mild air. Not sure about the EPO as it's hard to get a -NAO and -EPO. But a +PNA on the west coast would be a must.What's so bad about the pattern? -AO, -NAO, split flow, and 50/50 PV, cold on our side of the globe. Looks to hang around. I know the Pacific is not the greatest, we need better ridging on the west coast, not the midwest, but still. You think we need the -EPO for better cold delivery to come back? That's the only thing that's missing IMO.
Without the Pacific all the NAO will do is block up mild air. Not sure about the EPO as it's hard to get a -NAO and -EPO. But a +PNA on the west coast would be a must.
Exactly ... the cold air would just be bottled up in Canada ...Without the Pacific all the NAO will do is block up mild air. Not sure about the EPO as it's hard to get a -NAO and -EPO. But a +PNA on the west coast would be a must.
Phasing can either help or hurt. It depends on where the phase happens. The 1993 storm we were playing around with yesterday phased too far west to help us farther east. We got mostly rain. The December 2000 martha focker storm phased too far east, and we got missed. In this case, we don't have any sort of an antecedent cold air mass in place. So a southern stream wave moving west to east by itself is not going to be enough. So, we need a northern stream vort to phase with the southern stream energy. That would cool the column just enough to support snow over the upper SE. If that doesn't happen, the way it looks now, we are all rain. And it needs to happen not too far north or west, or we rain.
People are freaking out over a pattern like this?
Lol ok.
Most of us would kill to see this pattern coming knocking at our doorstep around Christmas. A pretty classic Miller A pattern is being shown here verbatim.
View attachment 27967
People are freaking out over a pattern like this?
Lol ok.
Most of us would kill to see this pattern coming knocking at our doorstep around Christmas. A pretty classic Miller A pattern is being shown here verbatim.
View attachment 27967
Might as well go full weenie and add the 850 temps!I mean.. this is still worth watching imo
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Green is good, right?? ?
Green is good, right?? ?
Like the EPS has been faring any better inside day 10-12...But that's assuming the GEFS way out at the unreliable hour 312 is even close to being right. Look at the major changes that occurred much earlier in the run. That in itself makes this 312 hour map even less reliable than normal.
Yep. Active pattern.Like the EPS has been faring any better inside day 10-12...
Like the EPS has been faring any better inside day 10-12...