Yes, but in all fairness they’re back to showing December niño like they were last weekend. Late but not denied
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
SnowNiner
Member
What's so bad about the pattern? -AO, -NAO, split flow, and 50/50 PV, cold on our side of the globe. Looks to hang around. I know the Pacific is not the greatest, we need better ridging on the west coast, not the midwest, but still. You think we need the -EPO for better cold delivery to come back? That's the only thing that's missing IMO.
Without the Pacific all the NAO will do is block up mild air. Not sure about the EPO as it's hard to get a -NAO and -EPO. But a +PNA on the west coast would be a must.
SnowNiner
Member
50/50 low can deliver cold air too, but I agree the ridging on the west coast is beneficial as well.
tennessee storm
Member
Exactly ... the cold air would just be bottled up in Canada ...
Downeastnc
Member
Some of you got missed...some of us not so much.....
The current pattern could pay off if it holds up, you figure 1 in 5 chances pays off so eventually one of these storms will be far enough east to pay out...I am hoping about 150-200 miles off Hatteras
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
People are freaking out over a pattern like this?
Lol ok.
Most of us would kill to see this pattern coming knocking at our doorstep around Christmas. A pretty classic Miller A pattern is being shown here verbatim.
Lol ok.
Most of us would kill to see this pattern coming knocking at our doorstep around Christmas. A pretty classic Miller A pattern is being shown here verbatim.
some GEFS members look good with low placement, but like RC said we need phasing for CAA and thus snow, but i like that blocking
this that type of pattern where if things go right, you could get a nice big dog, especially if phasing occurs, easily get amped up storms with that -NAO, just the problem like always in the SE is cold, but we have days to figure that out
I mean.. this is still worth watching imo
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah all it takes is one little wave sneaking in and popping off at the right time for there to be a lot of win here....honestly I hate the storms that the models have for days and days in the 5-10 day range they always seem to trend away after several big dog runs etc....its those little sneaky ones the models are late to pick up that pay off at least it seems that way to me....also less stress with only 3-4 days worth of runs to fret over...
The CMC is better, it's just north. We need that energy to phase further south, so the low needs to be around TX or LA
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But that's assuming the GEFS way out at the unreliable hour 312 is even close to being right. Look at the major changes that occurred much earlier in the run. That in itself makes this 312 hour map even less reliable than normal.
Green is good, right?? ?
You betcha!
But to add at least a modicum of substance, there is enough cold air nearby that a well-timed phase or even a well-placed/timed high would help northern areas.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Like the EPS has been faring any better inside day 10-12...
Yep. Active pattern.
Yep, neither has been doing well.