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Tropical TD 16

18Z GEFS is the least bearish run since the 6Z of yesterday:

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95L bares watching but can someone make a thread for 96L because it could hit the OBX and is closer to us?
 
I wouldn't be surprised to see this get it's act together through the next 3-4 days before it hits a TUTT as its approaching the islands. After the tutt things may become a little more favorable if it's north of the islands but the overall development of 96L will potentially help determine track and intensity as it may leave a weakness in the ridge or have an outflow channel in 95Ls path. If 95L isn't directed OTS by that point it'll be a race between 95L and and troughing potentially moving into the eastern US. There are quite a few hurdles here but it's certainly worth watching
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I got a feeling the SE COAST needs to watch this one.
Click to expand...

I have a feeling that system ahead of 95L will get pulled north with the trough, and the ridge will re-establish itself over the West Atlantic. If not, then this is going to be one hell of a storm for Nova Scotia lol. I actually think this has a pretty good shot at the Carolinas. This storm is currently worth 5 - maybe 6 - percent of my attention.
 
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Gefs has the members split around D5, stronger members then hit the eject button and go ots. What's left ends up here I believe none of these actually hit the US
 
12z ICON and CMC still saying no to OTS.....CMC in a big way. The question is "will the ridge build back after 96L"?


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Models start to develop it just north of the islands then it's due north from there. The threat from 95L as it stands has faded to almost nil.
 
GEFS has quite a few stronger members so far but there's a clear break in the ridge. This is that critical time frame where either the ridge bridges back or 95L escapes through the break and recurves well east.

It would take one heckuva bridge.
 

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Seems the euro and cmc are camped together with the idea of a further SW system albeit weak. They both also abruptly stop on a dime and accelerate the system ENE towards Bermuda as the big trough pushes off the east coast.
 
Shaggy said:
Seems the euro and cmc are camped together with the idea of a further SW system albeit weak. They both also abruptly stop on a dime and accelerate the system ENE towards Bermuda as the big trough pushes off the east coast.
Click to expand...

Yes, indeed, I'd say 90% chance now of no CONUS impact even though this was no easy call earlier like Larry was. Also, had the wave before this one (Invest 93L) moved like many early GFS runs had and had it also developed, it would have come in about 3-4 days earlier than 95L and might have been a big threat due to the NE US/SE Canada ridge being there then.

So, for now, the SE appears in good shape though 95L still needs to be watched. The Crazy Uncle ensemble isn't a good model but fwiw still suggests some threat with ~1/3 of the members threatening between 9/22 and 9/28. The next threat after this could very well come from below as climo suggests.

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Actually, 5 of the last 7 CMC ensemble runs have been like this.
 
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Peter?

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located less than 1000
miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later today or tomorrow while the system moves toward the
west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near
the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Upper-level
winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the
system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Very shocked 95L was not named as of 455pm... Looks better than Odette ever did...

Clear cut westerly and SW flow showing well on visible imagery ...
 
Peter is a naked swirl ATM and shear out ahead looks rough....they just shifted the floater so he is on the left side

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