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Tropical TD 16

GaWx

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The CONUS bulls got a big push at 12Z but it was from one of the much less trusted models, the Crazy Uncle ensembles. So take with a humongous grain of salt. Out of 21 members, 6 (30%) hit the CONUS and all as Hs, some likely majors: LA, FL, GA, SC, NC, and New England 9/25-8. The prior run also had a bunch of hits.

12Z CMC ensemble 282 hours:
 

BirdManDoomW

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95L bares watching but can someone make a thread for 96L because it could hit the OBX and is closer to us?
 

Meteorologist1999

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Yeah makes you wonder

But it is fantasy land of the GFS not the most reliable

What may be of more interest was the end of the HWRF had a hurricane threatening the Antilles
I got a feeling the SE COAST needs to watch this one.
 

SD

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I wouldn't be surprised to see this get it's act together through the next 3-4 days before it hits a TUTT as its approaching the islands. After the tutt things may become a little more favorable if it's north of the islands but the overall development of 96L will potentially help determine track and intensity as it may leave a weakness in the ridge or have an outflow channel in 95Ls path. If 95L isn't directed OTS by that point it'll be a race between 95L and and troughing potentially moving into the eastern US. There are quite a few hurdles here but it's certainly worth watching
 

Tornadocane

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I got a feeling the SE COAST needs to watch this one.
I have a feeling that system ahead of 95L will get pulled north with the trough, and the ridge will re-establish itself over the West Atlantic. If not, then this is going to be one hell of a storm for Nova Scotia lol. I actually think this has a pretty good shot at the Carolinas. This storm is currently worth 5 - maybe 6 - percent of my attention.
 

SD

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gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_42.png

Gefs has the members split around D5, stronger members then hit the eject button and go ots. What's left ends up here I believe none of these actually hit the US
 

Henry2326

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12z ICON and CMC still saying no to OTS.....CMC in a big way. The question is "will the ridge build back after 96L"?


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