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Tropical TD 16

GaWx

GaWx

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This already needs a thread due to the very strong Euro suite agreement on this one since yesterday. Also, the 12Z ICON has a H a week from now moving WNW in the MDR.

What 93L (now just off Africa) does will likely have a big influence thus increasing forecasting uncertainty.
 
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I’m usually the doom person but it’s too early to say if this storm will matter too much or hit land. It still could end up on the meh side once all is said and done.
 
12Z UKMET: has genesis at hour 60 but keeps it weak/moving WNW and then it dissipates:



NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.9N 20.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2021 60 12.2N 22.3W 1010 29
1200UTC 15.09.2021 72 12.5N 26.3W 1010 30
0000UTC 16.09.2021 84 13.3N 30.0W 1012 29
1200UTC 16.09.2021 96 14.2N 34.1W 1013 29
0000UTC 17.09.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING
 
The 12Z ICON has this become a H that turns NNW by 45W up already to 20N (as a cat 2),which would have almost definitely meant never getting close to the SE US based on history even allowing for a more W movement for a period later on. I haven’t found even one storm on record back to 1851 moving NW to NNW that far east in the MDR able to come back to the US. I did that research several years ago and was frankly surprised.

Edit: The 12Z GEFS once again has many geneses but it also suggests a recurve way out there is most likely by far.

Regardless, this wave being still over Africa tells me it is still too early to make a confident call.
 
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GaWx said:
The 12Z ICON has this become a H that turns NNW by 45W up already to 20N (as a cat 2),which would have almost definitely meant never getting close to the SE US based on history even allowing for a more W movement for a period later on. I haven’t found even one storm on record back to 1851 moving NW to NNW that far east in the MDR able to come back to the US. I did that research several years ago and was frankly surprised.

Edit: The 12Z GEFS once again has many geneses but it also suggests a recurve way out there is most likely by far.

Regardless, this wave being still over Africa tells me it is still too early to make a confident call.
Click to expand...


 
Shaggy said:
The southeast coast may get by this season without a bona-fide threat unless we have some Carribean action late season that sneaks up the coast Ala Mathew
Click to expand...

Hope so, especially as as an owner of 2 homes (though both are in an "X" flood zone) as well as being the sole caretaker of a mostly bedridden disabled bro. That being said, the SE US has already had lots of tropical activity this season and more than many seasons. Just nothing really bad thank goodness. But unfortunately until we get to around mid October, we're at risk.

12Z Euro drops the strong solution and now has only something very weak although it goes much further west as a wave. The Euro was awful with it making 93L into a strong TC in the far E Atlantic on many runs. Is this going to end up being a similar bust? We'll see.
 
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12Z EPS: 10% of the members end up a CONUS threat or a close miss. Here's the end of the run:
ecmen_12_mslps_ta_h_0360.png
 
pcbjr said:
So really we have no clue what it’s doing

... and won't for some while ... ;)
Click to expand...

If we did, these forecasting discussions would be much less interesting and probably less active.

Happy Hour GEFS is again pretty active with a good spread. The operational (green) is on the western side:

B2C0DCF9-F5C2-4FE5-A05E-B86C192BBD46.png
 
GaWx said:
If we did, these forecasting discussions would be much less interesting and probably less active.

Happy Hour GEFS is again pretty active with a good spread. The operational (green) is on the western side:

View attachment 90699
Click to expand...
Bingo, "Hurricane Larry" ... ;)

Edit:
So really we have no clue what it’s doing

There is a big difference between "going" and "doing" in this context ... sorry if that was lost ...
 
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Happy Hour GEFS 252: for comparison at this time the GFS was near 26N, 67W

gfsen_18_mslps_ta_h_0252.png
 
18Z GEFS has 10% (3) of its members landfall on the SE US 9/25-6: so may be one to watch closely for late month

gfsen_18_mslps_ta_h_0336.png

Edit: a 4th member hits NC from the SE at the end (9/28).
 
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0Z UKMET: it forms, stays weak, and dissipates:



NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.7N 21.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2021 48 11.7N 21.9W 1011 29
1200UTC 15.09.2021 60 12.3N 25.6W 1011 28
0000UTC 16.09.2021 72 13.1N 29.3W 1013 28
1200UTC 16.09.2021 84 13.9N 33.7W 1014 27
0000UTC 17.09.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING
——————-

Edit: The 0Z GEFS mean is to the NE of that of the 18Z so far. So, da bears pick up some points so far in the run.
 
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The 12Z EPS heavily favors "da bears"/is more bearish vs the 0Z for the CONUS fwiw with no more than a couple of CONUS hits out of ~51 members. But that's still a long ways out and thus this is still up in the air/bears watching even though the bears are favored as of now:

12Z EPS at 288 hours:
STFvghI.png
 
The CONUS bulls got a big push at 12Z but it was from one of the much less trusted models, the Crazy Uncle ensembles. So take with a humongous grain of salt. Out of 21 members, 6 (30%) hit the CONUS and all as Hs, some likely majors: LA, FL, GA, SC, NC, and New England 9/25-8. The prior run also had a bunch of hits.

12Z CMC ensemble 282 hours:
f0YOLMX.png
 
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