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Tropical TD 16

So really we have no clue what it’s doing

... and won't for some while ... ;)

If we did, these forecasting discussions would be much less interesting and probably less active.

Happy Hour GEFS is again pretty active with a good spread. The operational (green) is on the western side:

B2C0DCF9-F5C2-4FE5-A05E-B86C192BBD46.png
 
If we did, these forecasting discussions would be much less interesting and probably less active.

Happy Hour GEFS is again pretty active with a good spread. The operational (green) is on the western side:

View attachment 90699
Bingo, "Hurricane Larry" ... ;)

Edit:
So really we have no clue what it’s doing

There is a big difference between "going" and "doing" in this context ... sorry if that was lost ...
 
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Happy Hour GEFS 252: for comparison at this time the GFS was near 26N, 67W

gfsen_18_mslps_ta_h_0252.png
 
18Z GEFS has 10% (3) of its members landfall on the SE US 9/25-6: so may be one to watch closely for late month

gfsen_18_mslps_ta_h_0336.png

Edit: a 4th member hits NC from the SE at the end (9/28).
 
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0Z UKMET: it forms, stays weak, and dissipates:



NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.7N 21.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2021 48 11.7N 21.9W 1011 29
1200UTC 15.09.2021 60 12.3N 25.6W 1011 28
0000UTC 16.09.2021 72 13.1N 29.3W 1013 28
1200UTC 16.09.2021 84 13.9N 33.7W 1014 27
0000UTC 17.09.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING
——————-

Edit: The 0Z GEFS mean is to the NE of that of the 18Z so far. So, da bears pick up some points so far in the run.
 
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The 12Z EPS heavily favors "da bears"/is more bearish vs the 0Z for the CONUS fwiw with no more than a couple of CONUS hits out of ~51 members. But that's still a long ways out and thus this is still up in the air/bears watching even though the bears are favored as of now:

12Z EPS at 288 hours:
STFvghI.png
 
The CONUS bulls got a big push at 12Z but it was from one of the much less trusted models, the Crazy Uncle ensembles. So take with a humongous grain of salt. Out of 21 members, 6 (30%) hit the CONUS and all as Hs, some likely majors: LA, FL, GA, SC, NC, and New England 9/25-8. The prior run also had a bunch of hits.

12Z CMC ensemble 282 hours:
f0YOLMX.png
 
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