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Tropical TD 16

Models start to develop it just north of the islands then it's due north from there. The threat from 95L as it stands has faded to almost nil.
 
GEFS has quite a few stronger members so far but there's a clear break in the ridge. This is that critical time frame where either the ridge bridges back or 95L escapes through the break and recurves well east.

It would take one heckuva bridge.
 

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Seems the euro and cmc are camped together with the idea of a further SW system albeit weak. They both also abruptly stop on a dime and accelerate the system ENE towards Bermuda as the big trough pushes off the east coast.
 
Shaggy said:
Seems the euro and cmc are camped together with the idea of a further SW system albeit weak. They both also abruptly stop on a dime and accelerate the system ENE towards Bermuda as the big trough pushes off the east coast.
Click to expand...

Yes, indeed, I'd say 90% chance now of no CONUS impact even though this was no easy call earlier like Larry was. Also, had the wave before this one (Invest 93L) moved like many early GFS runs had and had it also developed, it would have come in about 3-4 days earlier than 95L and might have been a big threat due to the NE US/SE Canada ridge being there then.

So, for now, the SE appears in good shape though 95L still needs to be watched. The Crazy Uncle ensemble isn't a good model but fwiw still suggests some threat with ~1/3 of the members threatening between 9/22 and 9/28. The next threat after this could very well come from below as climo suggests.

WxDSYXx.png


Actually, 5 of the last 7 CMC ensemble runs have been like this.
 
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Peter?

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located less than 1000
miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later today or tomorrow while the system moves toward the
west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near
the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Upper-level
winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the
system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Very shocked 95L was not named as of 455pm... Looks better than Odette ever did...

Clear cut westerly and SW flow showing well on visible imagery ...
 
Peter is a naked swirl ATM and shear out ahead looks rough....they just shifted the floater so he is on the left side

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