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Pattern Sweatember '22

Still there on 12z GFS too. September will be hot and dry for many of us.
It's actually very different on the 12z. Still hot, especially for the upper midwest, but way better for eastern sections; mainly 80s and low 90s instead of mid 90s to 100s. Only negative to that run is no big front at the end. Still pretty dry but overall wetter than the last run.

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It's an interesting way to put it since 00-01 was a 3rd year nina
You know, if we see the type of cold pattern we saw from mid November 2000 to the 2nd week of January 2001 this year during that time frame, I would very much take my chances on seeing at least 1 significant winter storm.
 
Up to 3 cactus days now! Take your heat back Satan! FE7A4B6C-83C3-49F8-A639-3A42471C76F0.png
 
12z gfs and cmc were pretty ugly with the typhoon recurve and the down stream pattern. Reminds me of a couple of years ago where the typhoon recurve acted to enhance an ugly conus pattern and kept extending summer
Yeah, it was about October 9th or 10th before we got a true front to come through
 
I'd still roll the dice with a Dec 2000 snowstorm setup.
Definitely bad memories with that one considering I was forecasted 8-12” just six hours before go time and ended up with just a few flurries, but like several times during that few weeks, if the timing had been just a little bit better, it would have been a huge storm for a lot more folks. Even with those near misses, I’ll always take my chances with a long stretch of cold like we had during that timeframe
 
September already looks better than August for me. Yesterday all the forecasts were all straight sunny and 90s through the weekend

There's hints in the long range of moisture from the EPAC tooScreenshot_20220831-141149.png
 
Definitely bad memories with that one considering I was forecasted 8-12” just six hours before go time and ended up with just a few flurries, but like several times during that few weeks, if the timing had been just a little bit better, it would have been a huge storm for a lot more folks. Even with those near misses, I’ll always take my chances with a long stretch of cold like we had during that timeframe
That was as big of a bad bust as the one on Jan 24 2000 was good. I'll never forget the NWS playing catch all up day with that one. It's incredible how that one was missed. The afd's from GSP for that event are eye opening. Maybe I ought to look at the ones from Raliegh and Columbia to see what they say about that event. It was missed all the way up the coast I think, which made it even more remarkable.
 
Don’t show Shetley E5497BB7-4127-4143-919A-B8E61540D238.png
 
12z gfs and cmc were pretty ugly with the typhoon recurve and the down stream pattern. Reminds me of a couple of years ago where the typhoon recurve acted to enhance an ugly conus pattern and kept extending summer
Tonight's 0z gfs is pretty much rainless thorigh 220 hours but is hinting at a homegrown just off SC.
 
One thing I’m sure of is the models still have no consistency after day seven or so. I remember when you could start feeling good about storms and patterns around day ten knowing though there would be changes, but no chance at that now.
 
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