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Pattern Sweatember '22

D

Detective WX

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Football season is back to life, fall TV season is starting up again, and it sure looks like summer is gonna hang in firmly like several past sweatembers. Fire away.
 
Detective WX said:
Football season is back to life, fall TV season is starting up again, and it sure looks like summer is gonna hang in firmly like several past sweatembers. Fire away.
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Maybe someone else should start a thread?? The last 5 months have sucked balls! Need some new mojo!
I can get snow in September, so there’s that, I reckon
 
I wished we'd get a noticeably cooler change in temps but that is just a dream. Every year it stays hot on through October. CPC shows above average temperatures on through November. They show the same thing almost every year. Frost seems to be coming later each year also.

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Michael_Ballew said:
I wished we'd get a noticeably cooler change in temps but that is just a dream. Every year it stays hot on through October. CPC shows above average temperatures on through November. They show the same thing almost every year. Frost seems to be coming later each year also.

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Its not unheard of to get a big push of cooler air even as soon as 2 weeks from now. I've seen big cold fronts in Mid September where highs were in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s with very low humidity.
 
So far, not to derail things, but things has been slow. Spring post March was tame, hurricane season so far has been tame. Really the only thing to make the forum come alive is a major cane/ Sandy or Agnes-like system hitting the continental U.S. and/or a big fall tornado outbreak. Lastly, a Dec. snowstorm like 2017, '10, '00 or a bitterly cold one like '83, '89, '00, '10 as bonus gravy.
 
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Snowlover87 said:
Its not unheard of to get a big push of cooler air even as soon as 2 weeks from now. I've seen big cold fronts in Mid September where highs were in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s with very low humidity.
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That used to be correct. Growing up you could almost count on 50s by mid September. I guess that still happens occasionally but lately we can't even get below 60 outside the mountains before mid October anymore. Then it all comes at once and it's below average the end of October into November before the inevitable December torch sets it. That seems to be the cycle we're stuck in. I'd much rather like to see a below average September into the 1st half of October. A warmer November for a change and then flip to cold for December into January
 
smast16 said:
Lol, 'Very Hot' @ 84. my FIL is moving here from WI this Fall. Boy he's gonna be in for a world of hurt next summer if 84 is very hot.
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Wow! That’s some big adjustments! It gets into the upper 80s and 90s a good bit during the summer up here, but summer only lasts about 3 months!?
 
Snowlover87 said:
In the north, summer ends on August 31 like it should. In the south, summer drags on forever.
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Yep! Trees are showing sparse color already, but there’s just a different look to everything this time of year up here! Currently 69
 
Snowlover87 said:
In the south, summer drags on forever.
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What a retаrded statement. Seasons are relative—average temps in the vast majority of the South north of 30°N drop at least several °F from JJA averages by September, and cold fronts bringing temp drops are more common then. Sure, maybe the past years have been warmer than normal and your climate doesn't fit your preferences, but appropriating another climate's season timing isn't how it works.
 
I don't know if the GFS is on crack or not but what a terrible look going ito the second week of Sept on the 6z! Wowzers

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FINALLY pushes a front through on the 12th and 13th but good grief!

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Iceagewhereartthou said:
I don't know if the GFS is on crack or not but what a terrible look going ito the second week of Sept on the 6z! Wowzers

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gfs_T2m_us_39.png


gfs_T2m_us_43.png


gfs_T2m_us_47.png

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FINALLY pushes a front through on the 12th and 13th but good grief!

gfs_T2m_us_58.png
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When 588s are poking into Canada its going to be hot our best bet here is to drive a shortwave down the east side of the trough around d7 and cut it off over the regiongfs_z500_vort_us_34 (3).png
 
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GFS pushing mid 90's and almost 100's again in the LR, AGAIN. Will believe it when I see it. CFS is nowhere near that bad in the LR and is very progressive with lots of troughs and cutoffs which is a lot more realistic compared to almost 100's in September.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I don't know if the GFS is on crack or not but what a terrible look going ito the second week of Sept on the 6z! Wowzers

gfs_T2m_us_35.png


gfs_T2m_us_39.png


gfs_T2m_us_43.png


gfs_T2m_us_47.png

gfs_T2m_us_51.png


FINALLY pushes a front through on the 12th and 13th but good grief!

gfs_T2m_us_58.png
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Oooooof?
 
JHS said:
Still there on 12z GFS too. September will be hot and dry for many of us.
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It's actually very different on the 12z. Still hot, especially for the upper midwest, but way better for eastern sections; mainly 80s and low 90s instead of mid 90s to 100s. Only negative to that run is no big front at the end. Still pretty dry but overall wetter than the last run.

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SD said:
It's an interesting way to put it since 00-01 was a 3rd year nina
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You know, if we see the type of cold pattern we saw from mid November 2000 to the 2nd week of January 2001 this year during that time frame, I would very much take my chances on seeing at least 1 significant winter storm.
 
Up to 3 cactus days now! Take your heat back Satan! FE7A4B6C-83C3-49F8-A639-3A42471C76F0.png
 
Chazwin said:
You know, if we see the type of cold pattern we saw from mid November 2000 to the 2nd week of January 2001 this year during that time frame, I would very much take my chances on seeing at least 1 significant winter storm.
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I'd still roll the dice with a Dec 2000 snowstorm setup.
 
SD said:
12z gfs and cmc were pretty ugly with the typhoon recurve and the down stream pattern. Reminds me of a couple of years ago where the typhoon recurve acted to enhance an ugly conus pattern and kept extending summer
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Yeah, it was about October 9th or 10th before we got a true front to come through
 
BullCityWx said:
I'd still roll the dice with a Dec 2000 snowstorm setup.
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Definitely bad memories with that one considering I was forecasted 8-12” just six hours before go time and ended up with just a few flurries, but like several times during that few weeks, if the timing had been just a little bit better, it would have been a huge storm for a lot more folks. Even with those near misses, I’ll always take my chances with a long stretch of cold like we had during that timeframe
 
September already looks better than August for me. Yesterday all the forecasts were all straight sunny and 90s through the weekend

There's hints in the long range of moisture from the EPAC tooScreenshot_20220831-141149.png
 
Chazwin said:
Definitely bad memories with that one considering I was forecasted 8-12” just six hours before go time and ended up with just a few flurries, but like several times during that few weeks, if the timing had been just a little bit better, it would have been a huge storm for a lot more folks. Even with those near misses, I’ll always take my chances with a long stretch of cold like we had during that timeframe
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That was as big of a bad bust as the one on Jan 24 2000 was good. I'll never forget the NWS playing catch all up day with that one. It's incredible how that one was missed. The afd's from GSP for that event are eye opening. Maybe I ought to look at the ones from Raliegh and Columbia to see what they say about that event. It was missed all the way up the coast I think, which made it even more remarkable.
 
Don’t show Shetley E5497BB7-4127-4143-919A-B8E61540D238.png
 
SD said:
12z gfs and cmc were pretty ugly with the typhoon recurve and the down stream pattern. Reminds me of a couple of years ago where the typhoon recurve acted to enhance an ugly conus pattern and kept extending summer
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Tonight's 0z gfs is pretty much rainless thorigh 220 hours but is hinting at a homegrown just off SC.
 
One thing I’m sure of is the models still have no consistency after day seven or so. I remember when you could start feeling good about storms and patterns around day ten knowing though there would be changes, but no chance at that now.
 
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