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Pattern Sweatember '22

What a Plume headed up toward the SE this weekend!

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metwannabe said:
Also Euro not impressed, at least not in my neck of the woods

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Not going to lie this one is giving me fits to try to pin down. I can see how we could over perform with more widespread 2-3 inch totals and areas of 3-5, I can also see how a legitimate minimum of precip between US1 and I95 happens and we walk away with .1-.25. First real test will be tomorrow to see if the initial moisture surge and weak fgen can give us a solid band of rain or if it dies between coastal convection and better forcing to the west
 
SD said:
Not going to lie this one is giving me fits to try to pin down. I can see how we could over perform with more widespread 2-3 inch totals and areas of 3-5, I can also see how a legitimate minimum of precip between US1 and I95 happens and we walk away with .1-.25. First real test will be tomorrow to see if the initial moisture surge and weak fgen can give us a solid band of rain or if it dies between coastal convection and better forcing to the west
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This is going to happen because that's how this year has gone for MBY.
 

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Shaggy said:
This is going to happen because that's how this year has gone for MBY.
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I like your area tomorrow afternoon to get into some of the deeper convection to be honest. Probably going to be a lot of lightning delays for college football games regionally
 
SD said:
Not going to lie this one is giving me fits to try to pin down. I can see how we could over perform with more widespread 2-3 inch totals and areas of 3-5, I can also see how a legitimate minimum of precip between US1 and I95 happens and we walk away with .1-.25. First real test will be tomorrow to see if the initial moisture surge and weak fgen can give us a solid band of rain or if it dies between coastal convection and better forcing to the west
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PWATs are quite high and there will be a couple of disturbances moving through the area, which should produce some pretty efficient rainfall. A general 1-3" area-wide is a pretty good bet.
 
SD said:
I like your area tomorrow afternoon to get into some of the deeper convection to be honest. Probably going to be a lot of lightning delays for college football games regionally
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Dreading this. 12:30 kick tomorrow and I’m thinking we might be in the thick of it around then
 
DopplerWx said:
there aren't any temps in the 50s on the gfs out to 300+hrs wtf. awful.
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I feel you. However, luckily, this morning's 6z is quite different in the long run. Still doesn't swing next week's front all the way east of the Apps, but brings another stronger one down the following week, brings 50s to most north of I20, and gets rid of most of the 90s. Who knows what the ground truth will be by then but nice to see positive changes nonetheless. Summer days are numbered my friend!
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I feel you. However, luckily, this morning's 6z is quite different in the long run. Still doesn't swing next week's front all the way east of the Apps, but brings another stronger one down the following week, brings 50s to most north of I20, and gets rid of most of the 90s. Who knows what the ground truth will be by then but nice to see positive changes nonetheless. Summer days are numbered my friend!
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All we need is a hurricane approaching Wilmington and we wouldn't have any issues blasting a front through the entire eastern seaboard.
 
How did the models miss on this forecast for NC. Up until last night there was not a lot of precip forecasted for our state. What changed?
 
CaryWx said:
How did the models miss on this forecast for NC. Up until last night there was not a lot of precip forecasted for our state. What changed?
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Have you received a lot of rain? Nothing but an occasional splatter here so far, and it looks as if the western portion of the state did okay, but notta here in Chatham.
 
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