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Pattern Sweatember '22

Arcc said:
Pretty big change in modeling overnight. We went from a big 594dm ridge centered over the SE to it trending not as strong and farther west. Still gonna get hot for a few days, but much quicker to break down with the new looks.
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I'm hoping this could be the last real gasp for summer. Indications continue showing cooler air coming down after that through the end of the month. As 2019 showed, we can still get heat in October, but that is the exception. We're almost there fellas! ?
 
Tarheel1 said:
You looking at the DGEX?
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The Euro has those temps and I trust it more than the GFS. The Euro does not really have the hot bias the GFS has so it is more believable. It could change of course since it is a week out yet.
 
JHS said:
The Euro has those temps and I trust it more than the GFS. The Euro does not really have the hot bias the GFS has so it is more believable. It could change of course since it is a week out yet.
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I’m sorry but that is completely false. The Euro has always had the bias to overdo heat at 5-7 days out. Just a couple months ago it was trying to put pretty much all of the Carolinas outside the mountains and away from the immediate coast in the 110-115 degree range at that point out and that didn’t come close to happening… it was as much as 16-18 degrees off in some areas
 
weatherfide said:
Maybe if it verifies. The EPS is more in the 91 to 94 range in that time frame for most. Of course, it also has almost the entire U.S. above normal through the end of the month.
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Yeah I mean a rotting continental airmass sitting over the SE with rising heights aloft is going to warm. I think the big ? Is do we see the really high 850s forced into the area so we see the 95+ stuff or it more 87-92 for a few days. Not to mention every model is wildly inconsistent with its handling of the ridge, any wave breaks, and td7.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m sorry but that is completely false. The Euro has always had the bias to overdo heat at 5-7 days out. Just a couple months ago it was trying to put pretty much all of the Carolinas outside the mountains and away from the immediate coast in the 110-115 degree range at that point out and that didn’t come close to happening… it was as much as 16-18 degrees off in some areas
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Yeah I mean the potential to get really hot for the 2nd half of September exists but the consistency between model runs and even within the model suites does not exist. It's like winter where models dabble with really cold but it changes run to run and model to model. If you look at the eps plume starting around 9/23 for many of us the difference between max and min members on highs is 20 degrees many days and up to near 40 on a few days. Do we get hot? Probably. Are we looking at a 2007, 2010, 2019 type September heat wave? I kind of doubt it
 
SD said:
Yeah I mean a rotting continental airmass sitting over the SE with rising heights aloft is going to warm. I think the big ? Is do we see the really high 850s forced into the area so we see the 95+ stuff or it more 87-92 for a few days. Not to mention every model is wildly inconsistent with its handling of the ridge, any wave breaks, and td7.
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I haven't looked, but will these 850's be stagnant and stuck overhears, or is there still flow to the overall pattern and it's out in a few days?

low 90's in mid September is above average, but it's not uncommon.
 
smast16 said:
I haven't looked, but will these 850's be stagnant and stuck overhears, or is there still flow to the overall pattern and it's out in a few days?

low 90's in mid September is above average, but it's not uncommon.
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Right now nothing is closing the ridge off anymore overhead and deflecting everything so that's good. Recurving typhoon should help excite the pac jet so that should help keep things from getting terribly stagnant as well. We are probably looking at most if the work week next week being near or above 90 as the flow turns W/NW and the high 850s get directed in. If you want to pull for the cooler underdog we could send a cutoff down the east coast like the Canadian and shorten the heat by 2 days
 
I love me some fog. We've had good conditions for steam fog along rivers/valleys the last 2 mornings - I made the drive up to Clingmans Dome for sunrise this morning to get a better view and it sure was worth it. Emerald green islands poking through a sea of fog - almost surreal.

1st pic is the view from the Clingmans Dome parking area looking south into Swain County about 30 minutes after sunrise. 2nd pic is the visible satellite at that time with the approximate camera view circled in red.

Clingans Dome 30 minutes after sunrise 2.jpg


Visible Satellite after sunrise (fog in Swain County NC).png
 
Chazwin said:
I’m sorry but that is completely false. The Euro has always had the bias to overdo heat at 5-7 days out. Just a couple months ago it was trying to put pretty much all of the Carolinas outside the mountains and away from the immediate coast in the 110-115 degree range at that point out and that didn’t come close to happening… it was as much as 16-18 degrees off in some areas
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It looks like both models have backed off somewhat on the heat. The Euro now has a back door cold front moving into the Carolinas next Friday.
 
cyclogent said:
I love me some fog. We've had good conditions for steam fog along rivers/valleys the last 2 mornings - I made the drive up to Clingmans Dome for sunrise this morning to get a better view and it sure was worth it. Emerald green islands poking through a sea of fog - almost surreal.

1st pic is the view from the Clingmans Dome parking area looking south into Swain County about 30 minutes after sunrise. 2nd pic is the visible satellite at that time with the approximate camera view circled in red.

View attachment 121446


View attachment 121447
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CD14C4D8-A312-4677-9F93-67C07FB59ED2.jpeg
 
Good GFS run at lunch! Close call with a hurricane to NC , two different areas of snow, in two seperate areas of the country! Changes, they are a coming! 85AD6C65-1E43-46B2-8D23-0F183CD7D7F0.png7FEA150D-7021-4C3F-B143-0B7E1D9573B9.png6ADFCBA2-82B3-4612-B398-C65EC7153C1F.png
 
cyclogent said:
I love me some fog. We've had good conditions for steam fog along rivers/valleys the last 2 mornings - I made the drive up to Clingmans Dome for sunrise this morning to get a better view and it sure was worth it. Emerald green islands poking through a sea of fog - almost surreal.

1st pic is the view from the Clingmans Dome parking area looking south into Swain County about 30 minutes after sunrise. 2nd pic is the visible satellite at that time with the approximate camera view circled in red.

View attachment 121446


View attachment 121447
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I’ve got that very photo printed as a poster on my wall from September 15 years ago.
 
EmersonGA said:
I’ve got that very photo printed as a poster on my wall from September 15 years ago.
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Nice! Yeah I've thought about getting some of these morning shots enlarged and framed. It's an unbeatable view on foggy mornings as long as the Dome is clear which is a total wildcard most mornings.

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You're still seeing models fight to keep a summertime pattern around as we are transitioning into a new season. It happens every time. Will we be warm next week? Probably for a couple of days, but I will bet your bottom dollar that it will be upper 80's at least back around my neck of the woods and maybe lower 90's the closer you get to the coast. The days of summer are basically all but over and with quickly shortening days, it's going to make it harder and harder for temps to get warm. Plus both the Euro and GFS have consistently been too hot in the medium and long range. By the first of October I think you're quickly going to start seeing highs in the 70's for most at least back towards the east coast.
 
iGRXY said:
You're still seeing models fight to keep a summertime pattern around as we are transitioning into a new season. It happens every time. Will we be warm next week? Probably for a couple of days, but I will bet your bottom dollar that it will be upper 80's at least back around my neck of the woods and maybe lower 90's the closer you get to the coast. The days of summer are basically all but over and with quickly shortening days, it's going to make it harder and harder for temps to get warm. Plus both the Euro and GFS have consistently been too hot in the medium and long range. By the first of October I think you're quickly going to start seeing highs in the 70's for most at least back towards the east coast.
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I think we hang on to some low to mid 80's in the Atlanta area into October. There will be some nice "fall" like days mixing in behind cold fronts, though. I don't think it's going to be an extended heat wave. I do think it's going to be dry without any tropical systems to help out.
 
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