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Pattern Sweatember '22

Front did me dirty too. 0.06", for a total of 0.86" since Saturday. Let down.

And i'm glad i wasn't the only one who didn't get into the 50's. Seems like tonight is our night In NC.
 
smast16 said:
Front did me dirty too. 0.06", for a total of 0.86" since Saturday. Let down.

And i'm glad i wasn't the only one who didn't get into the 50's. Seems like tonight is our night In NC.
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There will be several nights of 50's coming up this week before a brief warmup. Even that should be bearable with low DPs, hopefully
 
jackendrickwx said:
This week is looking fantastic. Maybe just maybe next week is the last time we see upper 80s??
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I hope so, but the long range ensembles would need to be spectacularly wrong for that to be the case. It looks sauna-like during the 3rd to 4th week in September at least. Enjoy the cool for now. I'm hoping the models are wrong about the heat returning with a vengeance.
 
jackendrickwx said:
This week is looking fantastic. Maybe just maybe next week is the last time we see upper 80s??
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Next week is highly dependent on the ridge axis. We could get hot 90-95 for a few days, we could keep the ridge axis oriented so it's a bunch of 81-86 type days really subtle differences go a long way in sensible weather. After that it looks like we get some hemispheric retrogression to pull the heat ridge back west so we should temper back to what we are seeing now. Wildcard becomes the potential tropical system and if it can get hooked into any troughing in the east or if it rockets west under the ridge and ends up in Tx/Mx.

My early guess is at least 1-2 days of hot weather 90+ next week as the higher 850s will be apt to be directed at least partially into the region but something like the gfs with temps near 100 is a low % chance right now imo.

Last thing to add will be the numerous west pac systems the models have over the next 2 weeks. The best plans can easily be screwed by a recurving typhoon
 
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75.6 for high here yesterday which had to be the lowest high temp since early may. 55 was the low which was a little surprising since that was the temp at 2AM when I went to bed. Either way it was also the lowest temp in a few months. I love this time of year so much knowing we have got months of cool temps ahead plus the mystery of what winter will bring. I’ve got a feeling it’s going to be a crapy snow year here since I’ve had 2 incredible winters in a row of 12 and 19 inches of snow. Since 2006 I’ve never had 3 winters in a row that were snowy. Usually after 2 good winters here it’s extremely hard to get even 2-3 inches of snow in the 3rd winter. Of course it’s possible but I’m a big average user when it comes to predicting winter weather and that usually works out well here.
 
JHS said:
100+ possible for many of us next week.
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You can dial that back about 10 degrees. Mid 90's at best, probably. Still hot for this time of year but not unusual. Summer doesn't "close" in the SE until around mid-October. Then we get "Autumn" for 6 months until Summer returns in late April.
 
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