Snowlover87
Member
And just think, a low of 56 three months from now will feel warm !
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Pattern Sweatember '22
- Thread starter Detective WX
- Start date
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I'm hoping this could be the last real gasp for summer. Indications continue showing cooler air coming down after that through the end of the month. As 2019 showed, we can still get heat in October, but that is the exception. We're almost there fellas! ?
23-24c 850s like the 0z euro had would push many to 98-102
weatherfide
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JHS
Member
The Euro has those temps and I trust it more than the GFS. The Euro does not really have the hot bias the GFS has so it is more believable. It could change of course since it is a week out yet.
JHS
Member
The Euro has those temps now and I trust it more than the GFS.
I'm currently in northwest Oregon, but this was home yesterday.
NoSnowATL
Member
62 this morning. Better
weatherfide
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I’m sorry but that is completely false. The Euro has always had the bias to overdo heat at 5-7 days out. Just a couple months ago it was trying to put pretty much all of the Carolinas outside the mountains and away from the immediate coast in the 110-115 degree range at that point out and that didn’t come close to happening… it was as much as 16-18 degrees off in some areas
Yeah I mean a rotting continental airmass sitting over the SE with rising heights aloft is going to warm. I think the big ? Is do we see the really high 850s forced into the area so we see the 95+ stuff or it more 87-92 for a few days. Not to mention every model is wildly inconsistent with its handling of the ridge, any wave breaks, and td7.
Yeah I mean the potential to get really hot for the 2nd half of September exists but the consistency between model runs and even within the model suites does not exist. It's like winter where models dabble with really cold but it changes run to run and model to model. If you look at the eps plume starting around 9/23 for many of us the difference between max and min members on highs is 20 degrees many days and up to near 40 on a few days. Do we get hot? Probably. Are we looking at a 2007, 2010, 2019 type September heat wave? I kind of doubt it
smast16
Member
Right now nothing is closing the ridge off anymore overhead and deflecting everything so that's good. Recurving typhoon should help excite the pac jet so that should help keep things from getting terribly stagnant as well. We are probably looking at most if the work week next week being near or above 90 as the flow turns W/NW and the high 850s get directed in. If you want to pull for the cooler underdog we could send a cutoff down the east coast like the Canadian and shorten the heat by 2 days
cyclogent
Member
I love me some fog. We've had good conditions for steam fog along rivers/valleys the last 2 mornings - I made the drive up to Clingmans Dome for sunrise this morning to get a better view and it sure was worth it. Emerald green islands poking through a sea of fog - almost surreal.
1st pic is the view from the Clingmans Dome parking area looking south into Swain County about 30 minutes after sunrise. 2nd pic is the visible satellite at that time with the approximate camera view circled in red.
1st pic is the view from the Clingmans Dome parking area looking south into Swain County about 30 minutes after sunrise. 2nd pic is the visible satellite at that time with the approximate camera view circled in red.
JHS
Member
It looks like both models have backed off somewhat on the heat. The Euro now has a back door cold front moving into the Carolinas next Friday.
Good GFS run at lunch! Close call with a hurricane to NC , two different areas of snow, in two seperate areas of the country! Changes, they are a coming! 
