Pattern Swamptember 2021

[Dewpoint Dan]

You better show the current radar before DD comes in here wondering why it's almost 20 degrees cooler in Baton Rouge than Evansville Indiana.

90 in Indiana at the end of September is very impressive.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Dont want fall colors anyway. I want thick, rich, tropical green forest.

But dont humidity and bugs come along with tropical green forests ?

 

[Avalanche]

But dont humidity and bugs come along with tropical green forests ?

Yeah, Id better have bottles of OFF handy.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Leaves around here already either green or just dark brown and sucky, thanks to lack of rain and extended summer (which is a W)

Strange we got all our green foliage here

 

[SD]

Oh hello

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh hello
View attachment 91728

Good luck SD on getting that

 

[Brent]

Yeah only a tenth of an inch officially at the airport here this month crazy before today(which I think this mornings rain missed the airport)

Now it's sunny and humid. I am not impressed I expected cloudy

Apparently we're on a near record stretch of highs above 80

I stand corrected the airport did report a whopping 0.05" this morning. Still need over 3 and a half inches tomorrow to catch up for the month ?

 

[NorthDFWwx]

This seems fair and accurate View attachment 91727

That applies for every winter, not just 21-22.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

DFW made it to 90*F yet again today.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Oh hello
View attachment 91728

This got Apex written all over it.

 

[SD]

This got Apex written all over it.

I think its overdone but fun to see

 

[LickWx]

Leaves around here already either green or just dark brown and sucky, thanks to lack of rain and extended summer (which is a W)

It’s early for fall leaves . Last I saw the mountain folks haven’t even started though after the cold nights next 10 days will be popping up there.

 

[Avalanche]

Oh hello
View attachment 91728

Par for the course. Rain capital!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Consistency is key

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Luckily averages continue to drop as the days continue .. even if above normal it’ll be fine for me the unbearable stuff was mid to upper 90s for me this is kiddy above average temps

 

[ForsythSnow]

Consistency is key View attachment 91730View attachment 91731

So you're telling me a 300 hour gfs run 2 runs in a row with the same data is with watching? ?

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Luckily averages continue to drop as the days continue .. even if above normal it’ll be fine for me the unbearable stuff was mid to upper 90s for me this is kiddy above average temps

We are getting to the time of year when above normal temps are comfortable.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So you're telling me a 300 hour gfs run 2 runs in a row with the same data is with watching? ?

Okay then.

First off it’s not the Operational GFS, but the GEFS ensemble.

Second off tropical forcing is headed towards warmer phases as seen by the rising motion favoring convection around the MC/western pacific which is a correlation to eastern NA warmth (phase 6 as shown by the GEFS which RMM charts are struggling to pick up on.

3rd and final thing, this has been a consistent signal by the GEFS and EPS for about 5 days now.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

modernweeniemodernweenie?Sees CFS then sees what a burning source region prior to that did-

 

[LickWx]

modernweeniemodernweenie?Sees CFS View attachment 91735then sees what a burning source region prior to that did-View attachment 91736

While certainly you would want it to be cold and have a snow pack building across Canada if you want cold . Still doesn’t mean we are guaranteed to stay warm . Just like if we saw an early snowpack with tons of cold in Canada , it doesn’t mean a cold winter . Just helps I’m sure .