Pattern Swamptember 2021

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

MJO looks like a very weak influence now lol

 

[SD]

Probably will come true

Yeah most likely. I just hope we can lock it in as a true west based block and go through the whole block life cycle versus it being a short duration novelty.

 

[CraggyRider]

Nothing like September; hint of autumn in the air, sunshine, bluebird skies; great camping weather; loving the forecast:

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Nothing like September; hint of autumn in the air, sunshine, bluebird skies; great camping weather; loving the forecast:

View attachment 90958

This is the driest time of the year after all.

 

[CraggyRider]

This is the driest time of the year after all.

Yes, I think it is the Swamptember vodoo jinx

 

[GaWx]

Some of those modeled day 10 -NAOs are crazy.

Regardless, there’s little correlation between a period of -NAO in late Sept and the following winter being dominated by it. Maybe it will though but it happening in late September, alone, doesn’t increase that likelihood based on history.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[SD]

Regardless, there’s little correlation between a period of -NAO in late Sept and the following winter being dominated by it. Maybe it will though but it happening in late September, alone, doesn’t increase that likelihood based on history.

Yeah about the only meaningful thing right now would be if we got severe enough blocking in the high latitudes that it got into the stratosphere and disrupted the developing pv.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah about the only meaningful thing right now would be if we got severe enough blocking in the high latitudes that it got into the stratosphere and disrupted the developing pv.

Would be nice if we could get similar troughing in the Bering sea again which acts to really disrupt the SPV, however that could mean a garbage H5 pattern as the tradeoff (like last year) in the pacific

 

[weatherfide]

View attachment 90959

It looks like Asheville is close to freezing! That should accelerate the fall colors!

 

[LickWx]

It looks like Asheville is close to freezing! That should accelerate the fall colors!

Asheville is no where near freezing on that map . Mid 40s

 

[Myfrotho704_]

but lol

 

[BufordWX]

Summers last grasp. Looking forward to Tuesday!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh yeahhhh !!! Instead of a trough how about a little heat release

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Oh yeahhhh !!! Instead of a trough how about a little heat release View attachment 90963View attachment 90964

We knew this would bounce around .. still expect bounces but at the end of the day we’re getting later and later into the year .. averages are falling! A heat release at this time probably wouldn’t even exceed mid 80s

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We knew this would bounce around .. still expect bounces but at the end of the day we’re getting later and later into the year .. averages are falling! A heat release at this time probably wouldn’t even exceed mid 80s

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 90965

Add in usual heat biases mid range and u got mid 80s plus this is 246 out?? Mid to long range which is certainly still up in the air stuff ..

 

[olhausen]

Everyone’s talking about a hot September but no one has mentioned it’s running 1.1 degrees below average , primarily because of lows . Geez , y’all would die if it was an average September !

This September hasn’t been bad at all. First week or so was quite nice. Anyone who’s lived here long enough knew we’d be getting a last summer push for a week or two. I remember 2 falls ago when summer would not release its grip even into early October. I think it finally started to cool down around the 3rd week of October in 2019.

 

[CyclonicFury]

Think upper 40s may be possible for many areas next Friday/Saturday morning