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Pattern Swamptember 2021

Tornadocane said:
As far as winter is concerned, the pattern that sets up at the end of September and the first few days of October might be a good sign of things to come this winter for those that enjoy cold and snowy weather (I think that's everyone). When I lived New Jersey, a wintery October was usually a decent indication of a cold and snowy winter for my area, and it would be followed by a warm November. Love seeing that blocky appearance in the North Atlantic. And all that warm water in the West Pacific North Atlantic suggests to me that the Polar Vortex is going to get squeezed into North America.
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If I had a nickle every time a poster said this in September, I could afford to move to a colder climate.
 
Question: The precipitable water map, is there a formula to determine rainfall rates or is it use for a possibility amount??
 
It’s a good thing this thing is a little to far north to really influence low level shear more, still a good setup for rain/isolated severe storms (perhaps line segments/multicells) given the increasing mid level flow 8CFF6D95-F9BF-4044-89B4-7EE98EA40E5C.png8E3AE719-DAA3-440F-8A6F-7E462B47501D.png8274CC61-42E1-47A1-9410-F866EED4D561.png7F851480-3E61-446B-9513-0A9D8CEDD5C0.png
 
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