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Pattern Swamptember 2021

I guess the most interesting parts of this week will be can we get close to the 9/13 RDU record today (94, forecast was 93 but bumped down to 91 so ?‍♂️) and the vague chance of rain late this week.
Woo
 
smast16 said:
I've seen this mentioned a few other times, but can you explain? how does a recurving typhoon (i'm assuming pacific because you said typhoon vs Cyclone) lead to a bigger trough?
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It can shuffle up a pacific pattern, and shuffle up wavelengths, and the downstream effect on our pattern can be affected with either a big ridge (chanthu is about to be responsible for our big ridge the next 10 days) and can also cause a big EC trough if the pacific is shuffled to a point where there’s a large ridge out west
 
smast16 said:
I've seen this mentioned a few other times, but can you explain? how does a recurving typhoon (i'm assuming pacific because you said typhoon vs Cyclone) lead to a bigger trough?
Click to expand...
As the typhoon recurves and goes through ET the heat is released from the typhoon into the jet and helps build a larger ridge poleward and right of the ET transition. It often helps build a ridge in the GOA/AK/west Canada and drop a trough into the central and eastern US since the ET takes place in a location that our weather is highly teleconnected to it becomes a big driver and noticeable in our weather. The problem with the current situation is the strong existing pac jet stronger pac jet are less likely to do the wavy dance as a typhoon recurves and you can see the gfs bouncing back and forth between zonal/trough west and Central/eastern trough. You can also see that in the eps members post 9/21 with a relatively close spread expanding to 20-30 degrees
 
SD said:
As the typhoon recurves and goes through ET the heat is released from the typhoon into the jet and helps build a larger ridge poleward and right of the ET transition. It often helps build a ridge in the GOA/AK/west Canada and drop a trough into the central and eastern US since the ET takes place in a location that our weather is highly teleconnected to it becomes a big driver and noticeable in our weather. The problem with the current situation is the strong existing pac jet stronger pac jet are less likely to do the wavy dance as a typhoon recurves and you can see the gfs bouncing back and forth between zonal/trough west and Central/eastern trough. You can also see that in the eps members post 9/21 with a relatively close spread expanding to 20-30 degrees
Click to expand...

Thank you for this.
 
SD said:
As the typhoon recurves and goes through ET the heat is released from the typhoon into the jet and helps build a larger ridge poleward and right of the ET transition. It often helps build a ridge in the GOA/AK/west Canada and drop a trough into the central and eastern US since the ET takes place in a location that our weather is highly teleconnected to it becomes a big driver and noticeable in our weather. The problem with the current situation is the strong existing pac jet stronger pac jet are less likely to do the wavy dance as a typhoon recurves and you can see the gfs bouncing back and forth between zonal/trough west and Central/eastern trough. You can also see that in the eps members post 9/21 with a relatively close spread expanding to 20-30 degrees
Click to expand...
Can also be responsible for large ridging like what were about to see
 
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